Helmond Sport vs Willem II KNVB Beker prediction & result
Final score: Helmond Sport 3-4 Willem II.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Helmond Sport, 27% draw, 34% Willem II — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Helmond Sport at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Helmond Sport vs Willem II
Line-ups
- 1Menno BergsenG
- 4Brian KoglinD
- 14Lovro GoličD
- 43Tijn LandheerD
- 20Sem DekkersM
- 6Michel LudwigM
- 44Xander van der VeldeM
- 5Thomas PollM
- 10Dean HuibertsF
- 94Mauro LenaertsF
- 34Tarik EssakkatiF
- 7Joep van der SluijsM
- 19Helgi Fróði IngasonM
- 9Labinot BajramiF
- 21Ward van SleeuwenG
- 23Adam El MaachG
- 2Rayen van BreeD
- 3Flor Van Den EyndenD
- 8Pol LlonchM
- 47Dayen GeertsM
- 26Maxime DelangheG
- 5Hidde ter AvestD
- 3Finn StamD
- 83Mats LemmensD
- 24Nathan Tjoe-A-OnD
- 6Calvin TwigtM
- 18Anass ZarroukM
- 50Eser GürbüzM
- 10Jari SchuurmanM
- 32Vito van CrooijM
- 9Devin HaenF
- 52Tonny VilhenaM
- 15Amine Et-TaïbiD
- 7Jaden SloryF
- 17Chido Obi-MartinF
- 21Wouter Van der SteenG
- 31Karst de LeeuwG
- 14Jens MathijsenD
- 22Per van LoonM
- 2Alessandro CiranniD
Form going into Helmond Sport vs Willem II
Helmond Sport
Eerste Divisie
- L4-5away to Jong AZ23 October 2026
- L0-2NAC Breda16 October 2026
Willem II
Eredivisie
- L1-6Cambuur24 October 2026
- L2-3away to Sparta Rotterdam17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Utrecht11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Helmond Sport and Willem II in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 26 | 37 | -11 | 12 |
| 18 | Willem II | Eredivisie | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 40 | -29 | 3 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Eerste Divisie · Eredivisie
Head-to-head: Helmond Sport vs Willem II
- 21 December 2025Helmond Sport 2–2 Willem IIEerste Divisie
- 30 September 2025Willem II 1–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 29 March 2024Helmond Sport 0–2 Willem IIEerste Divisie
- 15 December 2023Willem II 4–1 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 3 February 2023Willem II 5–1 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
The result against the call
Willem II won 4–3 at Helmond Sport. The model had leaned towards a win for Helmond Sport at 39% and given a win for Willem II 34%. The goals: M. Ludwig 9' for Helmond Sport, D. Haen 28' for Willem II, E. Gurbuz 40' for Willem II, E. Gurbuz 42' for Willem II, T. Vilhena 53' for Willem II, L. Bajrami 72' for Helmond Sport, L. Bajrami 85' for Helmond Sport. Sent off: J. Slory (Willem II) 78'.
How the call on Helmond Sport v Willem II has moved
First published on 13 Oct at 36% / 29% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 39% / 27% / 34%: the biggest move is Helmond Sport's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Helmond Sport win39%▲ +3
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Willem II win34%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.