Telstar vs Almere City FC KNVB Beker prediction & result
Final score: Telstar 0-2 Almere City FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Telstar, 26% draw, 23% Almere City FC — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Telstar at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Telstar vs Almere City FC
Line-ups
- 1Ronald Koeman JrG
- 18Gabi CaschiliD
- 16Sem ValkD
- 4Abdelnour SoualhiaD
- 43Marvin PeersmanD
- 6Isaiah AhmedM
- 17Nils RossenM
- 14Harrie KusterM
- 10Tyrone OwusuM
- 27Patrick BrouwerM
- 11Nökkvi ÞórissonF
- 13Finn MulderG
- 20Daan ReizigerG
- 28Rojendro OudstenD
- 15Nigel Ogidi NwankwoD
- 23Noach ShenkmanM
- 19Fabiano RustF
- 5Prince AningM
- 8Emirhan DemircanF
- 2Jeff HardeveldD
- 1Wessel SpeelG
- 3Joey JacobsD
- 44Damian van BruggenD
- 4James LawrenceD
- 5Teun BijleveldD
- 8Milan de HaanM
- 6Enzo CornelisseM
- 17Emanuel PokuM
- 10Jamie JacobsM
- 7Byron BurgeringM
- 9Ferdy DruijfF
- 11Marley DorsF
- 21Hamza El DahriM
- 18Bas HuismanF
- 23Jochem Ritmeester van de KampM
- 24Malcolm MateyoG
- 30Joel Van der WiltG
- 16Tiziano VianelloD
- 22Emmanuel van de BlaakD
- 2Martin WasinskiD
Form going into Telstar vs Almere City FC
Telstar
Eredivisie
- L2-3away to GO Ahead Eagles23 October 2026
- L3-4Feyenoord17 October 2026
- D2-2ADO Den Haag11 October 2026
Almere City FC
Eerste Divisie
- L2-3Roda23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Emmen17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Telstar and Almere City FC in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Telstar | Eredivisie | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 10 |
| 2 | Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 15 | +21 | 31 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Eredivisie · Eerste Divisie
Head-to-head: Telstar vs Almere City FC
- 4 July 2026Almere City FC 2–1 TelstarFriendlies Clubs
- 14 January 2026Almere City FC 1–3 TelstarKNVB Beker
- 27 January 2023Telstar 0–1 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
- 9 September 2022Almere City FC 0–1 TelstarEerste Divisie
- 30 January 2022Almere City FC 0–0 TelstarEerste Divisie
- 10 September 2021Telstar 1–1 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Telstar and Almere City FC
Telstar
GoalsAssists
- T. Owusu51
Almere City FC
GoalsAssists
- F. Druijf103
- M. Dors54
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Almere City FC won 2–0 at Telstar. The model had leaned towards a win for Telstar at 51% and given a win for Almere City FC 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: T. Bijleveld 61' for Almere City FC, J. Ritmeester van de Kamp 80' for Almere City FC.
How the call on Telstar v Almere City FC has moved
First published on 13 Oct at 46% / 29% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 51% / 26% / 23%: the biggest move is Telstar's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Telstar win51%▲ +5
- Draw26%▼ −3
- Almere City FC win23%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.