MVV vs Excelsior KNVB Beker prediction & result
Final score: MVV 0-3 Excelsior.
Before kick-off the model made it 19% MVV, 26% draw, 55% Excelsior — fair odds of 5.26, 3.85 and 1.82.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Excelsior at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — MVV vs Excelsior
Line-ups
- 1Hugo WentgesG
- 17Sil van der WegenD
- 6Finn DickeD
- 22Sven BoulandD
- 25Yael LiesdekD
- 21Delano AsanteM
- 18Elias SierraM
- 10Olivier DumontM
- 27Naïm MatougM
- 7Lennerd DaneelsM
- 11Thijme VerheijenF
- 29Onesime ZimuanganaF
- 23Victor GoffingsG
- 12Sep van der HeijdenG
- 33Tristan BombleD
- 16Robert KlaasenM
- 19Mika LuijendijkM
- 20Amine AmgarM
- 14Mats KuipersF
- 34Samy MoumniF
- 1Stijn van GasselG
- 2Eric da Silva MoreiraD
- 4Casper WidellD
- 14Jan PlugD
- 15Simon JanssenD
- 3Rick MeissenM
- 6Daniel van VianenM
- 21Ilano Silva TimasM
- 10Noah NaujoksM
- 8Irakli YegoianM
- 9Mario DomínguezF
- 16Celton BiaiG
- 24Giuliano CairoM
- 22Osman TurayD
- 12Kasey BosF
- 34Quinten KraaivangerM
- 23Yaqub FineyM
- 30Ágúst Orri ThorsteinssonM
- 18Valentin SulzbacherM
- 7Aymen SlitiF
Form going into MVV vs Excelsior
MVV
Eerste Divisie
- D2-2away to Den Bosch23 October 2026
- L1-5Heracles18 October 2026
- L0-1away to NAC Breda9 October 2026
Excelsior
Eredivisie
- L0-1away to Fortuna Sittard25 October 2026
- L0-4away to Heerenveen16 October 2026
- L1-5Groningen11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
MVV and Excelsior in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | MVV | Eerste Divisie | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 20 |
| 15 | Excelsior | Eredivisie | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 11 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Eerste Divisie · Eredivisie
Head-to-head: MVV vs Excelsior
- 4 April 2025MVV 1–2 ExcelsiorEerste Divisie
- 18 October 2024Excelsior 3–2 MVVEerste Divisie
- 19 October 2022Excelsior 5–1 MVVKNVB Beker
- 15 April 2022MVV 1–1 ExcelsiorEerste Divisie
- 10 December 2021Excelsior 2–1 MVVEerste Divisie
- 20 February 2021MVV 1–0 ExcelsiorEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: MVV and Excelsior
MVV
GoalsAssists
- O. Dumont51
Excelsior
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Excelsior won 3–0 at MVV. The model had made a win for Excelsior its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: I. Yegoian 15' for Excelsior, I. Yegoian (penalty) 60' for Excelsior, A. Sliti 89' for Excelsior.
How the call on MVV v Excelsior has moved
First published on 14 Oct at 16% / 24% / 60% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 19% / 26% / 55%: the biggest move is Excelsior's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- MVV win19%▲ +3
- Draw26%▲ +2
- Excelsior win55%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.