28 October 2026, 23:30 UTC

Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer prediction & result

Nu Stadium, Fort Lauderdale
Referee: Armando Villarreal
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Inter Miami 2-2 FC Cincinnati.

Before kick-off the model made it 67% Inter Miami, 16% draw, 17% FC Cincinnati — fair odds of 1.49, 6.25 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Inter Miami at 67%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Inter Miami0%Draw10%FC Cincinnati90%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Lionel Messi
44'
45'
🔁David Douděraout: Tom Barlow
🔁Matías Galarzaout: Telasco Segovia
45'
🔁Sergio Reguilónout: Ian Fray
45'
⚽Luis Suárezassist: Carlos Henrique Casimiro
61'
63'
🔁Gerardo Valenzuelaout: Kyle Smith
72'
🔁Obinna Nwobodoout: Tah Anunga
72'
🔁Teenage Hadebeout: Alvas Powell
80'
⚽Kenji Mboma Demassist: Evander
🔁Germán Berterameout: Riquelme Fillipi
83'
86'
⚽Samuel Mawuena Gidiassist: Tom Barlow
⚽Riquelme Fillipiassist: Rodrigo De Paul
90'
90+1'
🔁Kenji Mboma Demout: José Martínez
Telasco Segovia
90+3'
Luis Suárez
90+4'

Match stats — Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati

61%Possession39%
14Shots13
4On target3
4Corners3
0.95xG0.73

Goals against chances

Inter Miami2 from 0.95 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Cincinnati2 from 0.73 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Inter Miami 4-3-3
  • 97D. St. ClairG
  • 2G. LujánD
  • 5CasemiroD
  • 16MicaelD
  • 3ReguilónD
  • 7R. De PaulM
  • 22D. AyalaM
  • 80M. GalarzaM
  • 10L. MessiF
  • 9L. SuárezF
  • 19G. BerterameF
Substitutes
  • 11Riquelme FillipiF
  • 42Y. BrightM
  • 17I. FrayD
  • 20S. MoralesM
  • 4F. MuraD
  • 56Daniel PinterF
  • 34R. Ríos NovoG
  • 8T. SegoviaM
  • 37M. FalcónD
Coach: Kily González
FC Cincinnati 3-5-2
  • 18R. CelentanoG
  • 11S. GidiD
  • 4N. HagglundD
  • 15T. HadebeD
  • 23D. DouděraM
  • 22G. ValenzuelaM
  • 10EvanderM
  • 5O. NwobodoM
  • 29Bryan Josías Ramírez LeónM
  • 9K. DenkeyF
  • 17K. Mboma DemF
Substitutes
  • 88A. ChirilaD
  • 99A. JabbariF
  • 13E. LouroG
  • 70J. MartínezM
  • 27B. AnungaM
  • 2A. PowellD
  • 24K. SmithD
  • 20P. BuchaM
  • 16T. BarlowF
Coach: Pat Noonan

Form going into Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati

Inter Miami

Major League Soccer

  • L0-2away to New York Red Bulls24 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Atlanta United FC17 October 2026

FC Cincinnati

Major League Soccer

  • W2-0away to DC United24 October 2026
  • W2-1DC United21 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Inter Miami34161268059+2160
9FC Cincinnati341210126775-846

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati

  • 13 May 2026FC Cincinnati 3–5 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
  • 23 November 2025FC Cincinnati 0–4 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
  • 26 July 2025Inter Miami 0–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 16 July 2025FC Cincinnati 3–0 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
  • 24 August 2024Inter Miami 2–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
  • 6 July 2024FC Cincinnati 6–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Inter Miami and FC Cincinnati

Inter Miami

GoalsAssists

  • L. Messi2613
  • L. Suárez166

FC Cincinnati

GoalsAssists

  • K. Denkey173

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Inter Miami and FC Cincinnati drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Inter Miami at 67% and given a draw 16%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: Luis Suárez 61' for Inter Miami, Kenji Mboma Dem 80' for FC Cincinnati, Samuel Mawuena Gidi 86' for FC Cincinnati, Riquelme Fillipi 90' for Inter Miami. On expected goals it finished 0.95–0.73.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Cincinnati a 84.7% chance to finish in the top nine: 99.7% after a win, 94.4% after a draw, 80.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 94.4%, 9.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.