Roda vs De Graafschap KNVB Beker prediction & result
Final score: Roda 1-0 De Graafschap.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Roda, 30% draw, 23% De Graafschap — fair odds of 2.13, 3.33 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Roda at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Roda vs De Graafschap
Line-ups
- 1Justin TreichelG
- 3Marco TolD
- 33Dario Van Den BuijsD
- 15Lucas BeertenD
- 17Guilherme PeixotoM
- 24Jerome DeomM
- 4Joshua NisbetM
- 25Bram MarsmanM
- 8Jeremiah MensahF
- 9Anthony van den HurkF
- 7Cain SeedorfF
- 2Luuk VerheijM
- 26Joey SleegersF
- 6Mitchell PaulissenM
- 10Fynn SchentenF
- 28Jay-Jay van DammeG
- 21Martin StojcevicG
- 27Keanu Van MieghemM
- 14Xander van den BergD
- 5Koen JansenD
- 22Paul ReversonG
- 2Jannes WieckhoffD
- 3Rowan BesselinkD
- 4Joran HardemanD
- 14Gijs BolkD
- 27Nart AhmetiM
- 21Kaya SymonsM
- 17Nathan KanindaM
- 8Donny WarmerdamM
- 11Toivo MeroM
- 9Julian KaniaF
- 16Nolan MartensD
- 15Thomas KokD
- 23Mark DiemersM
- 33Rick JonkersG
- 1Ties WieggersG
- 34Nic HartgersM
- 25Mark PabaiD
- 18Denzel EijkenM
- 6Clint LeemansM
Form going into Roda vs De Graafschap
Roda
Eerste Divisie
- W3-2away to Almere City FC23 October 2026
- W2-1away to Jong Utrecht19 October 2026
De Graafschap
Eerste Divisie
- D1-1Waalwijk23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Jong Ajax19 October 2026
- W2-1Jong Utrecht9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Roda | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 28 |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Roda vs De Graafschap
- 12 December 2025De Graafschap 2–3 RodaEerste Divisie
- 15 August 2025Roda 1–0 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 6 April 2025De Graafschap 2–0 RodaEerste Divisie
- 1 September 2024Roda 1–4 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 19 April 2024Roda 1–1 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 29 September 2023De Graafschap 0–0 RodaEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Roda and De Graafschap
Roda
GoalsAssists
- A. van den Hurk90
De Graafschap
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Roda beat De Graafschap 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Roda at 47%. The goal: M. Bentoumi 84' for Roda.
How the call on Roda v De Graafschap has moved
First published on 13 Oct at 45% / 30% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 47% / 30% / 23%: the biggest move is Roda's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Roda win47%▲ +2
- Draw30%=
- De Graafschap win23%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.