Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City Super League prediction & result
Final score: Henan Jianye 0-0 Chengdu Better City.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Henan Jianye, 29% draw, 37% Chengdu Better City — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Chengdu Better City at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33Shi ChenglongG
- 4Shinar YeljanD
- 2Iago MaidanaD
- 23Lucas MaiaD
- 22Huang RuifengD
- 6Wang ShangyuanM
- 21He ChaoM
- 29Zheng DalunM
- 10Bruno NazarioM
- 8Pedro MaranhaoM
- 9GustavoF
- 18Wang GuomingG
- 17Wang JinshuaiG
- 5Liu JiahuiD
- 27Liu YixinD
- 3O. GerbigD
- 15Haliq AblahanM
- 25Yang YilinM
- 13A. AbudulamM
- 30Fan XulinM
- 32Liu DianzuoG
- 4He YiranD
- 18Han PengfeiD
- 22Y. LiD
- 2H. HuD
- 16Yang Ming-YangM
- 5Matheus JussaM
- 11Wellington SilvaM
- 20Wang ZimingM
- 7Wei ShihaoM
- 10RomuloF
- 1Jian TaoG
- 15Ran WeifengG
- 28E. SorokinD
- 19Y. DongD
- 3A. C. JojoD
- 17Wang DongshengD
- 25Muzepper MurahmetjanM
- 23Liao LishengM
- 39Gan ChaoM
Form going into Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Better City
Henan Jianye
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Chongqing Tongliang Long29 August 2026
- D4-4away to Shenyang Urban23 August 2026
- L1-4away to Shanghai Shenhua15 August 2026
- D0-0Qingdao Youth Island9 August 2026
Chengdu Better City
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Shenyang Urban29 August 2026
- L4-5Shanghai Shenhua22 August 2026
- W3-2away to Hangzhou Greentown15 August 2026
- L0-1away to Yunnan Yukun8 August 2026
What these results say
- Henan Jianye did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Henan Jianye scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Henan Jianye conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Chengdu Better City conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Chengdu Better City scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Chengdu Better City had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
China Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Henan Jianye | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 28 |
| 2 | Chengdu Better City | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 53 | 38 | +15 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City
Henan Jianye
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo156
- Bruno Nazário106
Chengdu Better City
GoalsAssists
- Felipe183
- Wellington Silva106
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Henan Jianye and Chengdu Better City drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Chengdu Better City at 37% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.98–0.55.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.