Hibernian vs Aberdeen Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Hibernian 1-1 Aberdeen.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Hibernian, 29% draw, 33% Aberdeen — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Hibernian at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hibernian vs Aberdeen
Line-ups
- 1R. SallingerG
- 6J. KerrD
- 4G. HanleyD
- 15J. IredaleD
- 25F. PasslackM
- 8J. MulliganM
- 14M. ChaiwaM
- 3A. MayorM
- 23C. WrightM
- 10M. BoyleF
- 7O. EldingF
- 19N. CaddenM
- 24J. DevaneyM
- 18T. KlidjeF
- 9N. LoweF
- 11J. NewellM
- 22A. ŠutoF
- 12Alex WilliamsD
- 35F. OwensG
- 47A. AbdulaiM
- 27M. MüllerG
- 28C. CaddenD
- 22J. MilneD
- 5M. KnoesterD
- 21G. MolloyD
- 24N. Guinness-WalkerD
- 25C. RonanM
- 32A. AremuM
- 40F. MarshallM
- 20T. OlusanyaF
- 15K. NisbetF
- 26D. HappeD
- 30D. KleinG
- 14H. MahouM
- 9A. MoulouaF
- 11Lewis SmithF
- 7Tony YoganeF
- 2N. DevlinD
- 10A. BriedlM
- 17S. ArmstrongM
Form going into Hibernian vs Aberdeen
Hibernian
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Kilmarnock15 September 2026
- L1-2away to St Johnstone6 September 2026
- L1-3Heart of Midlothian3 September 2026
- W2-1away to Dundee30 August 2026
- L2-3Gent27 August 2026
Aberdeen
All competitions we cover
- W4-0away to Motherwell15 September 2026
- D0-0Kilmarnock5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Celtic2 September 2026
- L0-1Rangers30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Dundee8 August 2026
What these results say
- Hibernian conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aberdeen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aberdeen failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hibernian | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Aberdeen | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hibernian vs Aberdeen
- 11 April 2026Aberdeen 2–0 HibernianPremiership
- 30 December 2025Hibernian 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 26 October 2025Aberdeen 1–2 HibernianPremiership
- 26 April 2025Aberdeen 1–0 HibernianPremiership
- 1 February 2025Hibernian 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
Leading scorers: Hibernian and Aberdeen
Hibernian
GoalsAssists
- C. Wright31
Aberdeen
GoalsAssists
- K. Nisbet43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Hibernian and Aberdeen drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Hibernian at 38% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Kevin Nisbet 17' for Aberdeen, Martin Boyle (penalty) 62' for Hibernian.
How the call on Hibernian v Aberdeen has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Hibernian's chance of winning, down 8 points.
- Hibernian win38%▼ −8
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Aberdeen win33%▲ +7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.