St Johnstone vs Falkirk Premiership prediction & result
Final score: St Johnstone 1-1 Falkirk.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% St Johnstone, 30% draw, 29% Falkirk — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
St Johnstone at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St Johnstone vs Falkirk
Line-ups
- 1T. StewardG
- 33L. SmithD
- 5Z. MitchellD
- 3C. DiabateD
- 2E. AlıçD
- 42R. McAlearM
- 8J. HoltM
- 32J. CampbellM
- 30J. CotterillM
- 7T. StevenM
- 9J. FowlerF
- 19D. FinlaysonD
- 18K. FotheringhamF
- 14M. FouldsD
- 99R. PatonF
- 22D. SchmidtF
- 20R. SinclairG
- 11S. StantonM
- 25M. TaitM
- 26M. ToddM
- 19S. BainG
- 22R. StrainD
- 21D. MeļņiksD
- 5L. HendersonD
- 3L. McCannD
- 16Finley Frank BarbrookM
- 8B. SpencerM
- 23E. RossM
- 28B. KrauhausM
- 42Owen EamesM
- 24J. MurrellF
- 99C. FodreyM
- 1N. HogarthG
- 9R. MacIverF
- 4J. McMillanD
- 15L. NeilsonD
- 7Ben ParkinsonF
- 10C. SibbaldM
- 17S. TanserD
- 47A. DohertyF
Form going into St Johnstone vs Falkirk
St Johnstone
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Celtic9 September 2026
- W2-1Hibernian6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dundee2 September 2026
- L1-2away to Heart of Midlothian29 August 2026
- L0-1away to St Mirren8 August 2026
Falkirk
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Heart of Midlothian15 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dundee United5 September 2026
- L1-2Rangers2 September 2026
- L1-2away to Celtic29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Motherwell9 August 2026
What these results say
- St Johnstone conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- St Johnstone failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Falkirk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Falkirk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Falkirk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | St Johnstone | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 17 |
| 3 | Falkirk | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St Johnstone vs Falkirk
- 8 July 2025St Johnstone 0–1 FalkirkFriendlies Clubs
- 24 July 2018St Johnstone 1–0 FalkirkLeague Cup
Leading scorers: St Johnstone and Falkirk
St Johnstone
GoalsAssists
- J. Fowler61
Falkirk
GoalsAssists
- J. Murrell70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
St Johnstone and Falkirk drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for St Johnstone at 41% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ethan Ross 60' for Falkirk, Enes Alic 90+6' for St Johnstone. Sent off: Cheick Diabate (St Johnstone) 53'.
How the call on St Johnstone v Falkirk has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 43% / 30% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 41% / 30% / 29%: the biggest move is St Johnstone's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- St Johnstone win41%▼ −2
- Draw30%=
- Falkirk win29%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.