8 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Bolt Arena, Helsinki
Referee: Mohammad Al-Emara
Full time3 – 3

Final score: HJK Helsinki 3-3 AC Oulu.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% HJK Helsinki, 20% draw, 19% AC Oulu — fair odds of 1.64, 5.00 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

HJK Helsinki at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
⚽Camilo Trianaassist: Niklas Jokelainen
24'
🔁Miguel Santosout: Tobias Backman
26'
⚽Mihailo Bogicevic (OG)
39'
Mikko Pitkanen
39'
🔁Camilo Trianaout: Roope Riski
45+2'
Juha Pirinen
🔁Liam Möllerout: Teemu Pukki
45'
60'
Otto Kemppainen
🔁Pyry Mentuout: Lucas Lingman
62'
🔁Alexander Ringout: Joona Veteli
62'
🔁Alfie Cicaleout: Lassi Lappalainen
69'
75'
🔁Juuso Mäkeläinenout: Joel lotvonen
75'
🔁Niklas Jokelainenout: Matias Ojala
⚽Mads Borchers
76'
⚽Mads Borchersassist: Teemu Pukki
77'
80'
Matias Ojala
84'
⚽Rasmus Karjalainenassist: Tuomas Kaukua
⚽Nikolai Alhoassist: Teemu Pukki
86'

Match stats — HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu

77%Possession23%
33Shots5
6On target3
13Corners3
4.07xG0.22

Goals against chances

HJK Helsinki3 from 4.07 xGless than the chances were worth
AC Oulu3 from 0.22 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

HJK Helsinki 4-2-3-1
  • 30J. SamoojaG
  • 17N. AlhoD
  • 31M. BogićevićD
  • 6V. TikkanenD
  • 13K. SimojokiD
  • 4A. RingM
  • 8P. MentuM
  • 22L. MöllerM
  • 29S. HaaralaM
  • 7Alfie CicaleM
  • 9M. BorchersF
Substitutes
  • 77J. VeteliM
  • 10L. LingmanM
  • 32Mouhamed Guèye IIM
  • 11M. KirilovM
  • 3T. CissokhoD
  • 14L. MontanoD
  • 12M. HaapanenG
  • 20T. PukkiF
  • 26L. LappalainenF
Coach: J. Rantanen
AC Oulu 4-4-2
  • 13Miguel SantosG
  • 16O. KemppainenD
  • 5M. PitkänenD
  • 66J. PirinenD
  • 22T. KaukuaD
  • 30J. MakelainenM
  • 25M. ArsaloM
  • 14N. JokelainenM
  • 11L. GhezaliM
  • 10C. TrianaF
  • 7R. KarjalainenF
Substitutes
  • 9R. RiskiF
  • 18Adramane CassamáD
  • 29S. SilanderD
  • 3J. LietsaD
  • 2S. SipolaD
  • 36J. LotvonenM
  • 40J. KorhonenM
  • 8M. OjalaM
  • 62Tobias BackmanG
Coach: M. Isokangas

Form going into HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu

HJK Helsinki

Finnish Premier League

  • W4-0away to VPS2 November 2026
  • W4-2away to Inter Turku29 October 2026
  • D2-2KuPS25 October 2026
  • W4-0Gnistan17 October 2026

AC Oulu

Finnish Premier League

  • W2-0KuPS1 November 2026
  • D0-0VPS28 October 2026
  • W4-3away to Gnistan24 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Inter Turku17 October 2026

What these results say

  • HJK Helsinki went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • HJK Helsinki scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for HJK Helsinki had three goals or more.
  • AC Oulu went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • AC Oulu won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • AC Oulu scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2HJK Helsinki3217876639+2759
4AC Oulu32146124140+148

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu

  • 12 October 2026AC Oulu 3–4 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
  • 9 August 2026AC Oulu 0–1 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
  • 11 April 2026HJK Helsinki 0–1 AC OuluFinnish Premier League
  • 14 March 2026AC Oulu 2–1 HJK HelsinkiLeague Cup
  • 21 August 2025HJK Helsinki 1–0 AC OuluSuomen Cup
  • 20 July 2025HJK Helsinki 3–1 AC OuluFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: HJK Helsinki and AC Oulu

HJK Helsinki

GoalsAssists

  • M. Borchers173
  • T. Pukki46
  • S. Haarala42

AC Oulu

GoalsAssists

  • R. Karjalainen56

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HJK Helsinki and AC Oulu drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for HJK Helsinki at 61% and given a draw 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Camilo Triana 10' for AC Oulu, Mihailo Bogicevic (own goal) 26' for AC Oulu, Mads Borchers 76' for HJK Helsinki, Mads Borchers 77' for HJK Helsinki, Rasmus Karjalainen 84' for AC Oulu, Nikolai Alho 86' for HJK Helsinki. Sent off: Matias Ojala (AC Oulu) 80'. On expected goals it finished 4.07–0.22.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave HJK Helsinki a 85.7% chance to finish top of the Championship Group: 100.0% after a win, 68.0% after a draw, 41.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 68.0%, 17.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Finnish Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.