8 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Gnistan vs VPS Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Markku.fi Areena, Helsinki
Referee: Amir Hajizadeh
Full time5 – 1

Final score: Gnistan 5-1 VPS.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Gnistan, 25% draw, 25% VPS — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gnistan at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gnistan99%Draw1%VPS0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
⚽Casper Holmelund
⚽Kosmo Launialaassist: Edmund Arko-Mensah
25'
⚽Kosmo Launialaassist: Joakim Latonen
29'
56'
Dren terrnava
🔁Kosmo Launialaout: Artur Atarah
58'
🔁Roger Bonetout: Pakwo Abdoul Rachide Gnanou
58'
🔁Edmund Arko-Mensahout: Bogdan Milovanov
58'
⚽Joakim Latonenassist: Adam Jouhi
63'
70'
🔁Miika Niemiout: Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan
70'
🔁Joonas Vahteraout: Wilson Samake
70'
🔁Casper Holmelundout: Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi
🔁Joakim Latonenout: Jeff Selenge
70'
🔁Juhani Ojalaout: Noah Rossi
75'
⚽Sergey Eremenkoassist: Artur Atarah
76'
82'
🔁Antti-Ville Raisanenout: Simon Lindholm
82'
🔁Henri Salomaaout: Jonathan Muzinga
⚽Adam Jouhiassist: Jeff Selenge
85'
89'
Simon Lindholm

Match stats — Gnistan vs VPS

55%Possession45%
14Shots14
8On target6
4Corners8
1.51xG1.24

Goals against chances

Gnistan5 from 1.51 xGmore than the chances were worth
VPS1 from 1.24 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gnistan 3-4-3
  • 1O. VirtanenG
  • 14S. EremenkoD
  • 40J. OjalaD
  • 15G. EuropaeusD
  • 31A. JouhiM
  • 27O. HannulaM
  • 10J. LatonenM
  • 3RuxiM
  • 12E. Arko-MensahF
  • 45Kosmo LaunialaF
  • 11D. PérezF
Substitutes
  • 50J SelengeF
  • 7A. AtarahF
  • 2B. DahlströmD
  • 24P. GnanouD
  • 33S. HeikariD
  • 95M. JuričkaG
  • 19B. MilovanovD
  • 25Noah RossiD
  • 4Marcelo CostaD
Coach: Jussi Leppälahti
VPS 3-4-1-2
  • 1A. PiispaG
  • 2L. ManeD
  • 23M. NiemiD
  • 6E. OkerekeD
  • 24Y. DaoussiM
  • 17Dren TërrnavaM
  • 34A. RäisänenM
  • 7J. TurfkruierM
  • 30J. VahteraM
  • 25Henri SalomaaF
  • 9C. HolmelundF
Substitutes
  • 12L. VäyrynenG
  • 29W. SamakéF
  • 13Oluwaseyi OgunniyiF
  • 11J. MuzingaF
  • 14S. LindholmM
  • 27K. Kouassivi-BenissanD
  • 18A. ArrakoskiD
  • 21Arnold Adu-BoahenD
Coach: J. Nuorela

Form going into Gnistan vs VPS

Gnistan

Finnish Premier League

  • L3-4away to Inter Turku2 November 2026
  • D1-1away to KuPS29 October 2026
  • L3-4AC Oulu24 October 2026
  • L0-4away to HJK Helsinki17 October 2026

VPS

Finnish Premier League

  • L0-4HJK Helsinki2 November 2026
  • D0-0away to AC Oulu28 October 2026
  • L0-1Inter Turku24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to KuPS18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Gnistan did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Gnistan conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Gnistan scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • VPS did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • VPS failed to score in every one of these 4 matches.
  • VPS conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Gnistan321210105247+546
6VPS32117143243-1140

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gnistan vs VPS

  • 12 October 2026VPS 1–0 GnistanFinnish Premier League
  • 27 June 2026Gnistan 1–1 VPSFinnish Premier League
  • 9 May 2026VPS 1–1 GnistanFinnish Premier League
  • 15 August 2025Gnistan 0–0 VPSFinnish Premier League
  • 18 June 2025VPS 0–0 GnistanFinnish Premier League
  • 23 October 2024VPS 0–1 GnistanFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: Gnistan and VPS

Gnistan

GoalsAssists

  • A. Akinyemi50
  • A. Jouhi31

VPS

GoalsAssists

  • L. Smyth50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Gnistan beat VPS 5–1. The model had made a win for Gnistan its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Casper Holmelund 15' for VPS, Kosmo Launiala 25' for Gnistan, Kosmo Launiala 29' for Gnistan, Joakim Latonen 63' for Gnistan, Sergey Eremenko 76' for Gnistan, Adam Jouhi 85' for Gnistan. On expected goals it finished 1.51–1.24.

How the call on Gnistan v VPS has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 47% / 25% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 50% / 25% / 25%: the biggest move is Gnistan's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Gnistan win50%▲ +3
  2. Draw25%=
  3. VPS win25%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.