8 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

KuPS vs Inter Turku Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Vare Areena, Kuopio
Referee: Peiman Simani
Full time0 – 2

Final score: KuPS 0-2 Inter Turku.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% KuPS, 29% draw, 33% Inter Turku — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

KuPS at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

KuPS0%Draw1%Inter Turku99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
Janne-Pekka Laine
21'
⚽Alie Contehassist: Seth Saarinen
🔁Tommi Jyryout: Petteri Pennanen
28'
49'
⚽Jasse Tuominen
Julius Eskesen
55'
🔁Niilo Kujasaloout: Ricardo Jorge Silva Araújo
57'
🔁Gustav Engvallout: Piotr Parzyszek
57'
🔁Saikou Tourayout: Samuel Pasanen
57'
Samuel Pasanen
59'
🔁Julius Eskesenout: Saku Savolainen
73'
73'
🔁Lauri Laineout: Muhammed Suso
73'
🔁Alie Contehout: Jean Botué
73'
🔁Jasse Tuominenout: Johannes Yli-Kokko

Match stats — KuPS vs Inter Turku

76%Possession24%
14Shots6
7On target4
9Corners0
0.82xG0.59

Goals against chances

KuPS0 from 0.82 xGless than the chances were worth
Inter Turku2 from 0.59 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

KuPS 4-2-3-1
  • 12H. RiihimäkiG
  • 29A. PuukkoD
  • 33T. HämäläinenD
  • 23A. LötjönenD
  • 13N. KujasaloD
  • 22S. TourayM
  • 10V. GascM
  • 15A. AikiM
  • 16T. JyryM
  • 34J. EskesenM
  • 9G. EngvallF
Substitutes
  • 4K. AdamsD
  • 25C. AntwiD
  • 3S. HeiskanenM
  • 30JorginhoD
  • 20P. ParzyszekF
  • 14S. PasanenM
  • 8P. PennanenM
  • 6S. SavolainenF
  • 37K. SilenG
Coach: M. Nuutinen
Inter Turku 4-3-3
  • 1E. HuuhtanenG
  • 18S. SaarinenD
  • 6R. IvanovD
  • 22L. KuittinenD
  • 2J. NiskaD
  • 35Eeli KiiskiläM
  • 9J. TuominenM
  • 14J. LaineM
  • 28L. LaineF
  • 10Alie ContehF
  • 16C. JephtaF
Substitutes
  • 3J. HämäläinenD
  • 19I. JärvinenM
  • 7H. SjögrellM
  • 33Muhammed SusoF
  • 24J. TauriainenD
  • 12E. VuorjokiG
  • 8J. Yli-KokkoM
  • 11J. BotuéF
  • 30Y. AmankwahD
Coach: V. Vasara

Form going into KuPS vs Inter Turku

KuPS

Finnish Premier League

  • L0-2away to AC Oulu1 November 2026
  • D1-1Gnistan29 October 2026
  • D2-2away to HJK Helsinki25 October 2026
  • W2-0VPS18 October 2026

Inter Turku

Finnish Premier League

  • W4-3Gnistan2 November 2026
  • L2-4HJK Helsinki29 October 2026
  • W1-0away to VPS24 October 2026
  • L1-2AC Oulu17 October 2026

What these results say

  • KuPS failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • KuPS scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • KuPS conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Inter Turku scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Inter Turku conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Inter Turku had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3KuPS32141174633+1353
1Inter Turku32171054327+1661

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: KuPS vs Inter Turku

  • 11 October 2026Inter Turku 1–0 KuPSFinnish Premier League
  • 31 August 2026Inter Turku 1–0 KuPSFinnish Premier League
  • 30 May 2026KuPS 1–1 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League
  • 2 November 2025KuPS 3–2 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League
  • 5 October 2025Inter Turku 0–3 KuPSFinnish Premier League
  • 17 August 2025KuPS 2–1 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: KuPS and Inter Turku

KuPS

GoalsAssists

  • J. Moreno71
  • B. Armah40
  • P. Pennanen33

Inter Turku

GoalsAssists

  • H. Sjögrell82
  • Alie Conteh40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Inter Turku won 2–0 at KuPS. The model had leaned towards a win for KuPS at 38% and given a win for Inter Turku 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Alie Conteh 21' for Inter Turku, Jasse Tuominen 49' for Inter Turku. On expected goals it finished 0.82–0.59.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Inter Turku a 14.3% chance to finish top of the Championship Group: 29.7% after a win, 15.8% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.7%, 15.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Finnish Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on KuPS v Inter Turku has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 35% / 31% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is KuPS's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. KuPS win38%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. Inter Turku win33%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.