2 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

VPS vs HJK Helsinki Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Lemonsoft Stadion, Vaasa
Referee: Kontinen Joona
Full time0 – 4

Final score: VPS 0-4 HJK Helsinki.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% VPS, 23% draw, 53% HJK Helsinki — fair odds of 4.17, 4.35 and 1.89.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

HJK Helsinki at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VPS0%Draw1%HJK Helsinki99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽Mads Borchers
Mamadou Wurie Jalloh
21'
32'
⚽Santeri Haaralaassist: Teemu Pukki
🔁Paulo Limaout: Simon Lindholm
37'
41'
⚽Alfie Cicaleassist: Kaius Simojoki
🔁Xavier Odhiamboout: Henri Salomaa
45'
Antti-Ville Raisanen
48'
54'
⚽Santeri Haaralaassist: Pyry Mentu
60'
🔁Alexander Ringout: Lucas Lingman
60'
🔁Pyry Mentuout: Joona Veteli
60'
🔁Alfie Cicaleout: Lassi Lappalainen
🔁Antti-Ville Raisanenout: Dren terrnava
63'
🔁Wilson Samakeout: Joonas Vahtera
63'
71'
🔁Santeri Haaralaout: Martin Kirilov
83'
🔁Mads Borchersout: Liam Möller
🔁Simon Lindholmout: Arnold Adu-Boahen
83'
88'
Lucas Lingman

Match stats — VPS vs HJK Helsinki

50%Possession50%
7Shots18
2On target4
2Corners5
0.45xG4.47

Goals against chances

VPS0 from 0.45 xGabout what the chances were worth
HJK Helsinki4 from 4.47 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

VPS 3-5-2
  • 41M. JallohG
  • 2L. ManeD
  • 6E. OkerekeD
  • 24Y. DaoussiD
  • 13Oluwaseyi OgunniyiM
  • 34A. RäisänenM
  • 7J. TurfkruierM
  • 27K. Kouassivi-BenissanM
  • 8Paulo Jorge Barros Pimentel LimaM
  • 20X. OdhiamboF
  • 29W. SamakéF
Substitutes
  • 18A. ArrakoskiD
  • 9C. HolmelundF
  • 14S. LindholmM
  • 11J. MuzingaF
  • 1A. PiispaG
  • 25Henri SalomaaF
  • 17Dren TërrnavaM
  • 30J. VahteraM
  • 21Arnold Adu-BoahenD
Coach: J. Nuorela
HJK Helsinki 4-2-3-1
  • 30J. SamoojaG
  • 17N. AlhoD
  • 3T. CissokhoD
  • 31M. BogićevićD
  • 13K. SimojokiD
  • 4A. RingM
  • 8P. MentuM
  • 9M. BorchersM
  • 29S. HaaralaM
  • 7Alfie CicaleM
  • 20T. PukkiF
Substitutes
  • 22L. MöllerM
  • 14L. MontanoD
  • 77J. VeteliM
  • 24E. LeveälahtiD
  • 26L. LappalainenF
  • 10L. LingmanM
  • 12M. HaapanenG
  • 32Mouhamed Guèye IIM
  • 11M. KirilovM
Coach: J. Rantanen

Form going into VPS vs HJK Helsinki

VPS

Finnish Premier League

  • D0-0away to AC Oulu28 October 2026
  • L0-1Inter Turku24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to KuPS18 October 2026

HJK Helsinki

Finnish Premier League

  • W4-2away to Inter Turku29 October 2026
  • D2-2KuPS25 October 2026
  • W4-0Gnistan17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6VPS32117143243-1140
2HJK Helsinki3217876639+2759

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: VPS vs HJK Helsinki

  • 8 October 2026HJK Helsinki 6–0 VPSFinnish Premier League
  • 18 July 2026HJK Helsinki 2–1 VPSFinnish Premier League
  • 22 May 2026VPS 2–1 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
  • 5 July 2025VPS 0–2 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
  • 26 April 2025HJK Helsinki 3–1 VPSFinnish Premier League
  • 20 September 2024VPS 1–1 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: VPS and HJK Helsinki

VPS

GoalsAssists

  • L. Smyth50

HJK Helsinki

GoalsAssists

  • M. Borchers173
  • T. Pukki46
  • S. Haarala42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HJK Helsinki won 4–0 at VPS. The model had made a win for HJK Helsinki its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Mads Borchers 6' for HJK Helsinki, Santeri Haarala 32' for HJK Helsinki, Alfie Cicale 41' for HJK Helsinki, Santeri Haarala 54' for HJK Helsinki. On expected goals it finished 0.45–4.47.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave HJK Helsinki a 70.5% chance to finish top of the Championship Group: 88.8% after a win, 57.9% after a draw, 39.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 88.8%, 18.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Finnish Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on VPS v HJK Helsinki has moved

First published on 19 Oct at 25% / 24% / 51% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 24% / 23% / 53%: the biggest move is HJK Helsinki's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. VPS win24%▼ −1
  2. Draw23%▼ −1
  3. HJK Helsinki win53%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.