2 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Inter Turku vs Gnistan Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Veritas Stadion, Turku
Referee: Dennis Antamo
Full time4 – 3

Final score: Inter Turku 4-3 Gnistan.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Inter Turku, 24% draw, 21% Gnistan — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Inter Turku at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Inter Turku99%Draw1%Gnistan0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Herman Sjögrellassist: Eeli Kiiskilä
22'
36'
⚽Roger Bonetassist: Artur Atarah
Vesa-Pekka Vasara
37'
50'
Bogdan Milovanov
⚽Jean Botué
54'
Juuso Hämäläinen
59'
61'
Jussi Leppälahti
🔁Yeboah Amankwahout: Seth Saarinen
66'
🔁Jasse Tuominenout: Johannes Yli-Kokko
66'
69'
🔁Danny Pérezout: Edmund Arko-Mensah
76'
🔁Adam Jouhiout: Pakwo Abdoul Rachide Gnanou
🔁Jean Botuéout: Alie Conteh
78'
🔁Herman Sjögrellout: Muhammed Suso
78'
82'
🔁Roger Bonetout: Kosmo Launiala
⚽Luka Kuittinenassist: Janne-Pekka Laine
84'
🔁Janne-Pekka Laineout: Juuso Hämäläinen
87'
88'
⚽Gabriel Europaeusassist: Roman Eremenko
⚽Muhammed Susoassist: Lauri Laine
88'
90+3'
⚽Pakwo Abdoul Rachide Gnanouassist: Joakim Latonen

Match stats — Inter Turku vs Gnistan

59%Possession41%
15Shots23
7On target7
9Corners9
1.86xG2.19

Goals against chances

Inter Turku4 from 1.86 xGmore than the chances were worth
Gnistan3 from 2.19 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Inter Turku 4-3-3
  • 1E. HuuhtanenG
  • 30Y. AmankwahD
  • 22L. KuittinenD
  • 6R. IvanovD
  • 2J. NiskaD
  • 9J. TuominenM
  • 14J. LaineM
  • 35Eeli KiiskiläM
  • 7H. SjögrellF
  • 11J. BotuéF
  • 28L. LaineF
Substitutes
  • 24J. TauriainenD
  • 10Alie ContehF
  • 33Muhammed SusoF
  • 18S. SaarinenD
  • 34L. ProkopF
  • 12E. VuorjokiG
  • 19I. JärvinenM
  • 3J. HämäläinenD
  • 8J. Yli-KokkoM
Coach: V. Vasara
Gnistan 3-4-3
  • 1O. VirtanenG
  • 14S. EremenkoD
  • 67A. ObileyeD
  • 3RuxiD
  • 19B. MilovanovM
  • 31A. JouhiM
  • 15G. EuropaeusM
  • 11D. PérezM
  • 26R. EremenkoF
  • 7A. AtarahF
  • 10J. LatonenF
Substitutes
  • 2B. DahlströmD
  • 24P. GnanouD
  • 27O. HannulaM
  • 95M. JuričkaG
  • 45Kosmo LaunialaF
  • 40J. OjalaD
  • 25Noah RossiD
  • 50J SelengeF
  • 12E. Arko-MensahD
Coach: Jussi Leppälahti

Form going into Inter Turku vs Gnistan

Inter Turku

Finnish Premier League

  • L2-4HJK Helsinki29 October 2026
  • W1-0away to VPS24 October 2026
  • L1-2AC Oulu17 October 2026

Gnistan

Finnish Premier League

  • D1-1away to KuPS29 October 2026
  • L3-4AC Oulu24 October 2026
  • L0-4away to HJK Helsinki17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Inter Turku32171054327+1661
5Gnistan321210105247+546

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Inter Turku vs Gnistan

  • 7 October 2026Gnistan 0–0 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League
  • 26 July 2026Inter Turku 1–2 GnistanFinnish Premier League
  • 5 May 2026Gnistan 2–0 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League
  • 17 January 2026Gnistan 0–3 Inter TurkuLeague Cup
  • 22 October 2025Inter Turku 2–1 GnistanFinnish Premier League
  • 13 September 2025Gnistan 0–2 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: Inter Turku and Gnistan

Inter Turku

GoalsAssists

  • H. Sjögrell82
  • Alie Conteh40

Gnistan

GoalsAssists

  • A. Akinyemi50
  • A. Jouhi31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Inter Turku beat Gnistan 4–3. The model had made a win for Inter Turku its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Herman Sjögrell 22' for Inter Turku, Roger Bonet 36' for Gnistan, Jean Botué 54' for Inter Turku, Luka Kuittinen 84' for Inter Turku, Gabriel Europaeus 88' for Gnistan, Muhammed Suso 88' for Inter Turku, Pakwo Abdoul Rachide Gnanou 90+3' for Gnistan. On expected goals it finished 1.86–2.19.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Inter Turku a 28.8% chance to finish top of the Championship Group: 40.0% after a win, 17.7% after a draw, 6.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.0%, 11.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Finnish Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.