HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka HNL prediction & result
Final score: HNK Gorica 0-0 HNK Rijeka.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% HNK Gorica, 30% draw, 35% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Croatian HNL predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
HNK Gorica at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. JosipovicG
- 2F. BrautD
- 45S. PericD
- 15D. StevanovicD
- 34I. CvijanovicD
- 36A. KaveljM
- 6T. LacouxM
- 8J. PranjicM
- 24D. PavicicM
- 25B. BogojevicM
- 9P. MijicF
- 30D. ZarkovG
- 71D. MatijasG
- 32J. FilipovicD
- 4K. CustovicM
- 7O. BakicM
- 66J. FriganM
- 14S. KucisM
- 99M. GashiF
- 18B. KardumF
- 13I. VekicG
- 22A. OrecD
- 45A. MajstorovicD
- 51A. HusicD
- 34M. DevetakD
- 26T. DantasM
- 6B. PavicM
- 19S. VignatoM
- 10T. FrukM
- 4N. JankovicM
- 18D. Adu AdjeiF
- 99A. TodorovicG
- 1V. KovacG
- 23J. LasickasD
- 3M. ZivkovicD
- 91N. BodeticD
- 14A. GojakM
- 8I. CubelicM
- 5A. BarcoM
- 21J. PuljicF
Form going into HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka
HNK Gorica
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to NK Slaven Belupo22 August 2026
- L1-2HNK Hajduk Split16 August 2026
- L1-3away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb8 August 2026
- L0-2NK Osijek1 August 2026
HNK Rijeka
All competitions we cover
- L1-4FC Midtjylland27 August 2026
- W3-2Istra 196123 August 2026
- L0-2away to FC Midtjylland20 August 2026
- L0-2away to NK Varazdin16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Ilves13 August 2026
What these results say
- HNK Gorica did not win any of these 4 matches.
- HNK Gorica conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- HNK Rijeka conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- HNK Rijeka failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 7 |
| 6 | HNK Rijeka | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka
- 23 May 2026HNK Rijeka 2–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 22 March 2026HNK Gorica 4–0 HNK RijekaHNL
- 21 December 2025HNK Rijeka 1–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 5 October 2025HNK Gorica 1–3 HNK RijekaHNL
- 4 May 2025HNK Rijeka 2–1 HNK GoricaHNL
- 1 March 2025HNK Gorica 0–0 HNK RijekaHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Gorica and HNK Rijeka
HNK Gorica
GoalsAssists
- B. Bogojević40
HNK Rijeka
GoalsAssists
- T. Fruk54
- D. Adu-Adjei43
- S. Vignato41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
HNK Gorica and HNK Rijeka drew 0–0. On expected goals it finished 0.24–0.62.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.