31 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Atalanta vs Bologna Serie A prediction & result

New Balance Arena, Bergamo
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Atalanta 1-0 Bologna.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Atalanta, 29% draw, 31% Bologna — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Atalanta at 40% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atalanta4%Draw93%Bologna3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁C. De Ketelaereout: N. Zalewski
55'
🔁G. Raspadoriout: E. Elmas
56'
60'
🔁J. Odgaardout: R. Orsolini
60'
🔁R. Piccoliout: A. Dovbyk
61'
D. Tedesco
🔁G. Scamaccaout: N. Krstovic
68'
🔁Edersonout: L. Samardzic
68'
72'
🔁E. Holmout: N. Zortea
72'
🔁T. Pobegaout: M. Amondarain
N. Krstovic
73'
🔁S. Kolasinacout: R. Bellanova
78'
80'
🔁R. Orsoliniout: N. Moro
⚽L. Samardzicassist: N. Zalewski
90+6'

Match stats — Atalanta vs Bologna

42%Possession58%
6Shots16
2On target3
1Corners2
0.16xG1.35

Goals against chances

Atalanta1 from 0.16 xGmore than the chances were worth
Bologna0 from 1.35 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atalanta 4-3-3
  • 29Marco CarnesecchiG
  • 77Davide ZappacostaD
  • 3Odilon KossounouD
  • 42Giorgio ScalviniD
  • 23Sead KolašinacD
  • 8Mario PašalićM
  • 70Gianluca GaetanoM
  • 13ÉdersonM
  • 17Charles De KetelaereF
  • 9Gianluca ScamaccaF
  • 18Giacomo RaspadoriF
Substitutes
  • 59Nicola ZalewskiM
  • 99Eljif ElmasM
  • 10Lazar SamardžićM
  • 90Nikola KrstovićF
  • 16Raoul BellanovaD
  • 57Marco SportielloG
  • 95Paolo VismaraG
  • 40Relja ObrićD
  • 6Ibrahim SulemanaM
Coach: Maurizio Sarri
Bologna 4-2-3-1
  • 1Łukasz SkorupskiG
  • 2Emil HolmD
  • 5Eivind HellandD
  • 14Torbjørn HeggemD
  • 23Abdel RahimD
  • 4Tommaso PobegaM
  • 19Lewis FergusonM
  • 10Federico BernardeschiM
  • 21Jens OdgaardM
  • 28Nicolò CambiaghiM
  • 91Roberto PiccoliF
Substitutes
  • 7Riccardo OrsoliniF
  • 9Artem DovbykF
  • 20Nadir ZorteaD
  • 8Mikel AmondarainM
  • 6Nikola MoroM
  • 25Massimo PessinaG
  • 72Ukko HapponenG
  • 33Juan MirandaD
  • 16Nicolò CasaleD
Coach: Domenico Tedesco

Form going into Atalanta vs Bologna

Atalanta

  • W2-1Sassuolo23 August 2026

Bologna

  • L0-1Lazio24 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Atalanta42025506
16Bologna401325-31

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atalanta vs Bologna

  • 31 August 2026Atalanta 1–0 BolognaSerie A
  • 17 May 2026Atalanta 0–1 BolognaSerie A
  • 7 January 2026Bologna 0–2 AtalantaSerie A
  • 13 April 2025Atalanta 2–0 BolognaSerie A
  • 4 February 2025Atalanta 0–1 BolognaCoppa Italia
  • 28 September 2024Bologna 1–1 AtalantaSerie A
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.