Atalanta vs Bologna Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atalanta 1-0 Bologna.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Atalanta, 29% draw, 31% Bologna — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Atalanta at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atalanta vs Bologna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29Marco CarnesecchiG
- 77Davide ZappacostaD
- 3Odilon KossounouD
- 42Giorgio ScalviniD
- 23Sead KolašinacD
- 8Mario PašalićM
- 70Gianluca GaetanoM
- 13ÉdersonM
- 17Charles De KetelaereF
- 9Gianluca ScamaccaF
- 18Giacomo RaspadoriF
- 59Nicola ZalewskiM
- 99Eljif ElmasM
- 10Lazar SamardžićM
- 90Nikola KrstovićF
- 16Raoul BellanovaD
- 57Marco SportielloG
- 95Paolo VismaraG
- 40Relja ObrićD
- 6Ibrahim SulemanaM
- 1Łukasz SkorupskiG
- 2Emil HolmD
- 5Eivind HellandD
- 14Torbjørn HeggemD
- 23Abdel RahimD
- 4Tommaso PobegaM
- 19Lewis FergusonM
- 10Federico BernardeschiM
- 21Jens OdgaardM
- 28Nicolò CambiaghiM
- 91Roberto PiccoliF
- 7Riccardo OrsoliniF
- 9Artem DovbykF
- 20Nadir ZorteaD
- 8Mikel AmondarainM
- 6Nikola MoroM
- 25Massimo PessinaG
- 72Ukko HapponenG
- 33Juan MirandaD
- 16Nicolò CasaleD
Form going into Atalanta vs Bologna
Atalanta
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Hapoel Tel Aviv27 August 2026
- W2-1Sassuolo23 August 2026
- D0-0Hapoel Tel Aviv20 August 2026
Bologna
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Lazio24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Atalanta | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 14 |
| 8 | Bologna | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atalanta vs Bologna
- 17 May 2026Atalanta 0–1 BolognaSerie A
- 7 January 2026Bologna 0–2 AtalantaSerie A
- 13 April 2025Atalanta 2–0 BolognaSerie A
- 4 February 2025Atalanta 0–1 BolognaCoppa Italia
- 28 September 2024Bologna 1–1 AtalantaSerie A
Leading scorers: Atalanta and Bologna
Atalanta
GoalsAssists
- N. Krstović72
Bologna
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atalanta beat Bologna 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Atalanta at 40%. The goal: L. Samardzic 90+6' for Atalanta. On expected goals it finished 0.16–1.35.