5 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

AS Roma vs Atalanta Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Full time2 – 1

Final score: AS Roma 2-1 Atalanta.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% AS Roma, 25% draw, 20% Atalanta — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AS Roma at 55% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AS Roma6%Draw91%Atalanta3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Gian Piero Gasperini
40'
45'
🔁Gianluca Scamaccaout: Nikola Krstović
47'
⚽Éderson José dos Santos
🔁Emanuele Lulliout: Nahuel Molina
54'
🔁Rodrigo Moraout: Matias Soule
54'
55'
Maurizio Sarri
🔁Gianluca Manciniout: Daniele Ghilardi
62'
🔁Donyell Malenout: Santiago Thomas Castro
63'
66'
🔁Elif Elmasout: Nicola Zalewski
66'
🔁Lazar Samardzicout: Mario Pašalić
🔁Evan Ndickaout: Leonardo Balerdi
67'
73'
🔁Sead Kolašinacout: Davide Zappacosta
79'
🔁Éderson José dos Santosout: Franck Kessié
84'
Raoul Bellanova
⚽Mario Hermosoassist: Matias Soule
89'
⚽Matias Souleassist: Paulo Dybala
90+3'
90+7'
Gianluca Gaetano

Match stats — AS Roma vs Atalanta

66%Possession34%
39Shots6
10On target2
14Corners1

Line-ups

AS Roma 3-4-1-2
  • 99M. SvilarG
  • 23G. ManciniD
  • 5E. NdickaD
  • 22HermosoD
  • 77E. LulliM
  • 4B. CristanteM
  • 17M. KonéM
  • 43WesleyM
  • 86Rodrigo MoraM
  • 21P. DybalaF
  • 14D. MalenF
Substitutes
  • 18M. SouléF
  • 2D. RenschD
  • 20N. MolinaD
  • 3K. KoulierakisD
  • 95P. GolliniG
  • 87D. GhilardiD
  • 15M. de RoonM
  • 70G. De MarziG
  • 9S. CastroF
Coach: G. Gasperini
Atalanta 4-3-3
  • 29M. CarnesecchiG
  • 16R. BellanovaD
  • 3O. KossounouD
  • 42G. ScalviniD
  • 23S. KolašinacD
  • 10L. SamardžićM
  • 70G. GaetanoM
  • 13ÉdersonM
  • 17C. De KetelaereF
  • 9G. ScamaccaF
  • 99E. ElmasF
Substitutes
  • 19F. KessiéM
  • 77D. ZappacostaD
  • 31T. KristensenD
  • 90N. KrstovićF
  • 40R. ObrićD
  • 8Mario PasalicM
  • 18G. RaspadoriF
  • 11J. RoweF
  • 57M. SportielloG
Coach: M. Sarri

Form going into AS Roma vs Atalanta

AS Roma

  • W4-0away to Lecce31 August 2026
  • W4-0Fiorentina24 August 2026

Atalanta

  • W1-0Bologna31 August 2026
  • W2-1Sassuolo23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1AS Roma4400121+1112
11Atalanta42025506

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AS Roma vs Atalanta

  • 5 September 2026AS Roma 2–1 AtalantaSerie A
  • 18 April 2026AS Roma 1–1 AtalantaSerie A
  • 3 January 2026Atalanta 1–0 AS RomaSerie A
  • 12 May 2025Atalanta 2–1 AS RomaSerie A
  • 2 December 2024AS Roma 0–2 AtalantaSerie A
  • 12 May 2024Atalanta 2–1 AS RomaSerie A

Leading scorers: AS Roma and Atalanta

AS Roma

  • D. Malen6 goals
  • M. Soulé2 goals1 assists

Atalanta

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.