5 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

AS Roma vs Atalanta Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Full time2 – 1

Final score: AS Roma 2-1 Atalanta.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% AS Roma, 25% draw, 20% Atalanta — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AS Roma at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AS Roma6%Draw91%Atalanta3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Gian Piero Gasperini
40'
45'
🔁Gianluca Scamaccaout: Nikola Krstović
47'
⚽Éderson José dos Santos
🔁Emanuele Lulliout: Nahuel Molina
54'
🔁Rodrigo Moraout: Matias Soule
54'
55'
Maurizio Sarri
🔁Gianluca Manciniout: Daniele Ghilardi
62'
🔁Donyell Malenout: Santiago Thomas Castro
63'
66'
🔁Elif Elmasout: Nicola Zalewski
66'
🔁Lazar Samardzicout: Mario Pašalić
🔁Evan Ndickaout: Leonardo Balerdi
67'
73'
🔁Sead Kolašinacout: Davide Zappacosta
79'
🔁Éderson José dos Santosout: Franck Kessié
84'
Raoul Bellanova
⚽Mario Hermosoassist: Matias Soule
89'
⚽Matias Souleassist: Paulo Dybala
90+3'
90+7'
Gianluca Gaetano

Match stats — AS Roma vs Atalanta

66%Possession34%
39Shots6
10On target2
14Corners1

Line-ups

AS Roma 3-4-1-2
  • 99M. SvilarG
  • 23G. ManciniD
  • 5E. NdickaD
  • 22HermosoD
  • 77E. LulliM
  • 4B. CristanteM
  • 17M. KonéM
  • 43WesleyM
  • 86Rodrigo MoraM
  • 21P. DybalaF
  • 14D. MalenF
Substitutes
  • 18M. SouléF
  • 2D. RenschD
  • 20N. MolinaD
  • 3K. KoulierakisD
  • 95P. GolliniG
  • 87D. GhilardiD
  • 15M. de RoonM
  • 70G. De MarziG
  • 9S. CastroF
Coach: G. Gasperini
Atalanta 4-3-3
  • 29M. CarnesecchiG
  • 16R. BellanovaD
  • 3O. KossounouD
  • 42G. ScalviniD
  • 23S. KolašinacD
  • 10L. SamardžićM
  • 70G. GaetanoM
  • 13ÉdersonM
  • 17C. De KetelaereF
  • 9G. ScamaccaF
  • 99E. ElmasF
Substitutes
  • 19F. KessiéM
  • 77D. ZappacostaD
  • 31T. KristensenD
  • 90N. KrstovićF
  • 40R. ObrićD
  • 8Mario PasalicM
  • 18G. RaspadoriF
  • 11J. RoweF
  • 57M. SportielloG
Coach: M. Sarri

Form going into AS Roma vs Atalanta

AS Roma

All competitions we cover

  • W4-0away to Lecce31 August 2026
  • W4-0Fiorentina24 August 2026

Atalanta

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Bologna31 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Hapoel Tel Aviv27 August 2026
  • W2-1Sassuolo23 August 2026
  • D0-0Hapoel Tel Aviv20 August 2026

What these results say

  • Atalanta went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Atalanta won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Atalanta scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3AS Roma118303110+2127
12Atalanta114251720-314

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AS Roma vs Atalanta

  • 18 April 2026AS Roma 1–1 AtalantaSerie A
  • 3 January 2026Atalanta 1–0 AS RomaSerie A
  • 12 May 2025Atalanta 2–1 AS RomaSerie A
  • 2 December 2024AS Roma 0–2 AtalantaSerie A
  • 12 May 2024Atalanta 2–1 AS RomaSerie A

The full AS Roma vs Atalanta record →

Leading scorers: AS Roma and Atalanta

AS Roma

GoalsAssists

  • D. Malen82
  • Rodrigo Mora40

Atalanta

GoalsAssists

  • N. Krstović72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AS Roma beat Atalanta 2–1. The model had made a win for AS Roma its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Éderson José dos Santos 47' for Atalanta, Mario Hermoso 89' for AS Roma, Matias Soule 90+3' for AS Roma. Sent off: Gianluca Gaetano (Atalanta) 90+7'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.