Nacional vs Famalicao Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Nacional 0-4 Famalicao.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Nacional, 29% draw, 33% Famalicao — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Nacional at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nacional vs Famalicao
Line-ups
- 1Renato BellucciG
- 2Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la CruzD
- 33Francisco GonçalvesD
- 38Zé VitorD
- 5José GomesD
- 6Matheus DiasM
- 8Miguel BaezaM
- 15C. LabidiM
- 20Matchoi DjalóM
- 12Song Min-KyuM
- 9A. ObandoF
- 31D. DongmoM
- 14Ivanildo FernandesD
- 11S. GavrielM
- 7M. JensenM
- 13João GonçalvesG
- 21W. KokoloD
- 23Mateus IseppeM
- 50KevynG
- 99Pablo RuanF
- 25L. CarevićG
- 17Rodrigo PinheiroD
- 15Víctor RofinoD
- 4F. van BreemenD
- 28Pedro FranciscoD
- 8Marcos PeñaM
- 21Tamás SzücsM
- 23Gil DiasM
- 14Mathias De AmorimM
- 7SorrisoM
- 70G. KoutsiasF
- 3L. RealpeD
- 33P. SalasF
- 10Pedro SantosF
- 1I. ZlobinG
- 5L. MeyerD
- 19Paulo MoreiraM
- 24Mathis JangealM
- 2Gustavo GarciaD
- 9U. AbubakarF
Form going into Nacional vs Famalicao
Nacional
All competitions we cover
- L1-3Alverca12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sporting CP5 September 2026
- L2-3Estrela30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Guimaraes23 August 2026
- W2-0Estoril16 August 2026
Famalicao
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Sporting CP13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Estrela5 September 2026
- D0-0GIL Vicente30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Santa Clara23 August 2026
- L1-2Maritimo16 August 2026
What these results say
- Nacional failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nacional conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Famalicao did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Famalicao conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nacional | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 10 |
| 10 | Famalicao | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nacional vs Famalicao
- 21 March 2026Famalicao 1–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 1 November 2025Nacional 0–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 1 March 2025Nacional 2–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 29 September 2024Famalicao 0–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 16 May 2021Famalicao 3–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Nacional and Famalicao
Nacional
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Famalicao
GoalsAssists
- G. Koutsias50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Famalicao won 4–0 at Nacional. The model had leaned towards a win for Nacional at 38% and given a win for Famalicao 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Georgios Koutsias 7' for Famalicao, Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura 13' for Famalicao, Georgios Koutsias 40' for Famalicao, Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura 67' for Famalicao. Sent off: Matheus dos Santos Dias (Nacional) 77'.
How the call on Nacional v Famalicao has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 38% / 31% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Famalicao's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Nacional win38%=
- Draw29%▼ −2
- Famalicao win33%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.