Sporting CP vs Arouca Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Sporting CP 2-2 Arouca.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Sporting CP, 30% draw, 24% Arouca — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sporting CP at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting CP vs Arouca
Line-ups
- 1Rui SilvaG
- 22Iván FresnedaD
- 6Z. DebastD
- 25Gonçalo InácioD
- 20M. AraújoD
- 5Sergi AltimiraM
- 77I. DoumbiaM
- 10Geny CatamoM
- 17R. ZalazarM
- 19N. IrankundaM
- 97L. SuárezF
- 28J. DerryF
- 4S. AndersenM
- 50Rodrigo DiasD
- 58Flávio GonçalvesF
- 7F. IoannidisF
- 30KaiqueG
- 31Luis GuilhermeF
- 9Rafael Ferreira NelF
- 21Pedro LimaM
- 12I. de ArruabarrenaG
- 28Tiago EsgaioD
- 15Javi SánchezD
- 3José FontánD
- 18O. LebedenkoD
- 6E. van EeM
- 8T. FukuiM
- 19A. TrezzaM
- 21Mateo FloresM
- 7N. DjouahraM
- 17BarberoF
- 37Mario ClimentD
- 1J. VinarčíkG
- 20G. RukavinaF
- 5B. PopovićD
- 89Pedro SantosM
- 77S. ParkF
- 23D. NandínF
- 4Diogo MonteiroD
- 9F. MayuluF
Form going into Sporting CP vs Arouca
Sporting CP
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Famalicao13 September 2026
- W3-1Galatasaray9 September 2026
- W2-0Nacional5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Rio Ave28 August 2026
- W3-1Alverca22 August 2026
Arouca
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Santa Clara13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Estoril7 September 2026
- W2-1Maritimo29 August 2026
- L0-2away to FC Porto23 August 2026
- W4-0Moreirense16 August 2026
What these results say
- Sporting CP went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sporting CP scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sporting CP won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sporting CP | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 5 | Arouca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting CP vs Arouca
- 24 January 2026Arouca 1–2 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 17 August 2025Sporting CP 6–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 15 February 2025Sporting CP 2–2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 13 September 2024Arouca 0–3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 10 March 2024Arouca 0–3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Sporting CP and Arouca
Sporting CP
GoalsAssists
- L. Suárez91
- Flávio Gonçalves31
Arouca
GoalsAssists
- Barbero50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sporting CP and Arouca drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Sporting CP at 46% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Gonçalo Inácio 3' for Sporting CP, Luis Suárez 17' for Sporting CP, Jose Fontán (penalty) 81' for Arouca, Dylan Nandín 87' for Arouca. Sent off: Zeno Debast (Sporting CP) 54'.
How the call on Sporting CP v Arouca has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 44% / 30% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 46% / 30% / 24%: the biggest move is Sporting CP's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Sporting CP win46%▲ +2
- Draw30%=
- Arouca win24%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.