11 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Imisli FK vs Qarabag Premyer Liqa prediction & result

Yevlakh City Stadium, Yevlakh
Referee: E. Bayramov
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Imisli FK 0-2 Qarabag.

Before kick-off the model made it 17% Imisli FK, 24% draw, 59% Qarabag — fair odds of 5.88, 4.17 and 1.69.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Qarabag at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Imisli FK0%Draw1%Qarabag99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
J. Montiel
59'
⚽O. Kashchuk
🔁A. Salahlyout: A. Eyubov
64'
67'
🔁J. Montielout: M. Jankovic
67'
🔁M. Qurbanlyout: Z. Sawo
🔁M. Yawout: S. Faracov
75'
75'
🔁O. Kashchukout: R. Cephas
81'
•Z. Sawo
B. Hasanalizada
84'
88'
⚽J. Mouaddib
90'
🔁J. Mouaddibout: R. Khadra
90'
🔁Pedro Bicalhoout: S. Lobato
🔁R. Viegasout: M. Tahirov
90+1'
90+2'
R. Khadra

Line-ups

Imisli FK
  • 1Y. Imanov
  • 5I. Inqilably
  • 23Diogo Rollo
  • 19A. Salahly
  • 9D. Dos Santos
  • 6M. Yaw
  • 77F. Nabiyev
  • 14B. Hasanalizada
  • 80Deco
  • 13R. Viegas
  • 21Ronaldo
Substitutes
  • 22S. Mammadzada
  • 70M. Tahirov
  • 3T. Yusifli
  • 42Y. Senin
  • 17S. Faracov
  • 33A. Eyubov
  • 55M. Alakbarov
Coach: Farid Namazov
Qarabag
  • 23M. Zlomislic
  • 21O. Kashchuk
  • 2Matheus Silva
  • 22M. Qurbanly
  • 20Kady Borges
  • 35Pedro Bicalho
  • 10J. Montiel
  • 5B. Langa
  • 25C. Makreckis
  • 7J. Mouaddib
  • 4B. Varkonyi
Substitutes
  • 1S. Mahammadaliyev
  • 55B. Huseynov
  • 8M. Jankovic
  • 29R. Cephas
  • 9Z. Sawo
  • 88S. Lobato
  • 11R. Khadra
Coach: Qurban Qurbanov

Form going into Imisli FK vs Qarabag

Imisli FK

No earlier matches on record this season.

Qarabag

All competitions we cover

  • L1-4Twente27 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Twente20 August 2026
  • W2-0Dynamo Kyiv13 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Dynamo Kyiv6 August 2026
  • D0-0away to CSKA Sofia30 July 2026

What these results say

  • 4 of these 5 matches for Qarabag had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Imisli FK11326915-611
4Qarabag10541148+619

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Imisli FK vs Qarabag

  • 16 May 2026Qarabag 3–0 Imisli FKPremyer Liqa
  • 14 February 2026Imisli FK 0–1 QarabagPremyer Liqa
  • 31 October 2025Qarabag 2–0 Imisli FKPremyer Liqa

The result against the call

Qarabag won 2–0 at Imisli FK. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Qarabag at 59%. The goals: O. Kashchuk 59' for Qarabag, J. Mouaddib 88' for Qarabag.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Imisli FK a 50.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 39.9% after a win, 47.4% after a draw, 52.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 52.8%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

For Qarabag the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 21.2% going in: 22.8% after a win, 18.2% after a draw, 17.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.8%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Imisli FK v Qarabag has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 21% / 27% / 52% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 17% / 24% / 59%: the biggest move is Qarabag's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Imisli FK win17%▼ −4
  2. Draw24%▼ −3
  3. Qarabag win59%▲ +7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.