11 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Safa Baku vs Turan Premyer Liqa prediction & result

ASK Arena, Baku
Referee: A. Aliyev
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Safa Baku 0-1 Turan.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Safa Baku, 31% draw, 44% Turan — fair odds of 4.00, 3.23 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Turan at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Safa Baku0%Draw2%Turan98%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
S. Beusnard
M. Jarjue
6'
C. Mamengi
10'
23'
🔁H. Hurtadoout: E. Hackman
45+2'
⚽D. Balau
🔁V. Popout: F. Yusifli
58'
🔁V. Qanbarovout: E. Cafarov
58'
🔁C. Mamengiout: I. Zulfugarli
61'
67'
🔁S. Beusnardout: R. Olabe
F. Yusifli
68'
79'
🔁Henrique Silvaout: D. Marandici
79'
🔁D. Tavaresout: A. Jankovic
🔁D. Mertensout: Luis Felipe
87'
🔁B. Dansokoout: N. Aliyev
87'

Line-ups

Turan
Coach: Kurban Berdyev

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Safa Baku11128820-125
2Turan11632128+421

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Turan won 1–0 at Safa Baku. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Turan at 44%. The goal: D. Balau 45+2' for Turan.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Safa Baku a 68.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 60.0% after a win, 69.3% after a draw, 72.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 72.6%, 4.2 points higher than before the match.

For Turan the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 39.2% going in: 43.7% after a win, 37.2% after a draw, 31.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 43.7%, 4.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Safa Baku v Turan has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 27% / 32% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 25% / 31% / 44%: the biggest move is Turan's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Safa Baku win25%▼ −2
  2. Draw31%▼ −1
  3. Turan win44%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.