Sudtirol
vs
Mantova
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Sudtirol 1–0 Mantova
The model makes it 36% Sudtirol, 31% draw, 33% Mantova — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sudtirol 1.15, Mantova 1.09.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Sudtirol and Mantova are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Sudtirol's rating is built from 51 Serie B matches and Mantova's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Sudtirol are 12th on 15 points from 11 games; Mantova are 4th on 19 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Sudtirol have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Pisa.
- Mantova are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Hellas Verona.
- Last 6 meetings: Mantova 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Sudtirol 0–3 Mantova.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sudtirol vs Mantova
Has the model earned this number?
Sudtirol at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sudtirol vs Mantova
Sudtirol
Serie B
- D2-2away to Pisa7 November 2026
- D1-1Cesena31 October 2026
- L0-2away to Padova27 October 2026
- D1-1Sampdoria24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Juve Stabia18 October 2026
Mantova
Serie B
- D0-0Hellas Verona7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Modena31 October 2026
- L0-2Cremonese27 October 2026
- W1-0away to Virtus Entella24 October 2026
- L0-2Palermo17 October 2026
What these results say
- Sudtirol did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sudtirol conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Mantova had two goals or fewer.
- Mantova failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sudtirol | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 4 | Mantova | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sudtirol
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
Mantova
Chance to finish in the top two · 6% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Sudtirol vs Mantova
- 25 April 2026Sudtirol 0–3 MantovaSerie B
- 18 October 2025Mantova 1–1 SudtirolSerie B
- 29 March 2025Mantova 2–0 SudtirolSerie B
- 14 December 2024Sudtirol 2–2 MantovaSerie B
- 6 August 2022Sudtirol 2–2 MantovaFriendlies Clubs
- 6 March 2022Sudtirol 1–0 MantovaSerie C - Girone A
Leading scorers: Sudtirol and Mantova
Sudtirol
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Mantova
GoalsAssists
- F. Ruocco50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Mantova (4th, with Sudtirol 12th), while our numbers lean to Sudtirol. Sudtirol rate 0.60 in attack and 1.32 in defence, Mantova 0.71 and 1.29 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sudtirol a 0.1% chance of the title and Mantova 1.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sudtirol the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sudtirol against 1.09 for Mantova. Sudtirol's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.29 for Mantova.
How the model reaches 36% for Sudtirol to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sudtirol to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Sudtirol's ratings take away 3 points and Mantova's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level41%−1
- Sudtirol's ratings38%−3
- Mantova's ratings36%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sudtirol at home · Mantova away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Sudtirol 11, Mantova 11.
Sudtirol score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Mantova have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sudtirol
- at Avellino5 Dec · Serie Bwin 25%
- at Empoli8 Dec · Serie Bwin 32%
- vs Hellas Verona12 Dec · Serie Bwin 32%
Mantova
- vs Ascoli5 Dec · Serie Bwin 30%
- at Vicenza Virtus8 Dec · Serie Bwin 40%
- vs Benevento12 Dec · Serie Bwin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.