8 November 2026, 11:00 UTC

Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt Premyer Liqa prediction & result

Yevlakh City Stadium, Yevlakh
Referee: A. Ahmadov
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Imisli FK 0-0 Sumqayıt.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Imisli FK, 28% draw, 34% Sumqayıt — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Imisli FK at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Imisli FK4%Draw92%Sumqayıt4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ronaldo
15'
46'
🔁Renan Santanaout: A. Suleymali
🔁J. Hernandezout: D. Cardoso
46'
63'
•N. Ahmadzada
🔁S. Faracovout: D. Dos Santos
70'
80'
🔁N. Ahmadzadaout: I. Barker
86'
🔁M. Bangreout: N. Orucov
86'
🔁E. Mustafaevout: R. Kehat

Form going into Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt

Imisli FK

Premyer Liqa

  • L0-1away to Kapaz1 November 2026
  • W2-1Şamaxı FK25 October 2026
  • W1-0Turan18 October 2026
  • L0-2Qarabag11 October 2026

Sumqayıt

Premyer Liqa

  • D1-1Safa Baku2 November 2026
  • L2-3away to Zira23 October 2026
  • W2-1Araz16 October 2026
  • W4-1Qabala10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Imisli FK conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Imisli FK had two goals or fewer.
  • Sumqayıt scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Sumqayıt conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Sumqayıt.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Imisli FK11326915-611
9Sumqayıt102441314-110

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt

  • 25 April 2026Imisli FK 0–2 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa
  • 9 December 2025Sumqayıt 1–0 Imisli FKPremyer Liqa
  • 13 September 2025Imisli FK 0–3 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa

The result against the call

Imisli FK and Sumqayıt drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Imisli FK at 38% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Imisli FK a 15.8% chance to finish in the bottom two: 9.5% after a win, 17.6% after a draw, 20.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 17.6%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.

For Sumqayıt the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 12.1% going in: 7.7% after a win, 11.0% after a draw, 15.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 11.0%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Imisli FK v Sumqayıt has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 36% / 28% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is Imisli FK's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Imisli FK win38%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Sumqayıt win34%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.