7 November 2026, 14:30 UTC

Zira vs Qabala Premyer Liqa prediction & result

Zira Stadium, Zira
Referee: I. Mammadov
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Zira 2-1 Qabala.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Zira, 25% draw, 17% Qabala — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Zira at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zira98%Draw2%Qabala0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽D. Volkovi
11'
14'
⚽I. Akinade
23'
I. Akinade
E. Alicanov
45+1'
🔁E. Alicanovout: A. Seydiyev
46'
🔁M. Mchakhchekhout: Vieirinha
62'
67'
🔁M. Ubochiomaout: E. Cekici
75'
🔁I. Akinadeout: Bruno Silva
🔁D. Legboout: D. Chrismael
79'
87'
🔁S. Shahniyarovout: N. Monzango
87'
🔁Raphael Utzigout: N. Aliyev
⚽D. Chrismael
89'
🔁A. Guseynovout: H. Hacyly
90'

Line-ups

Zira
Coach: Rashad Sadiqov
Qabala
Coach: Jeton Bekjiri

Form going into Zira vs Qabala

Zira

Premyer Liqa

  • D2-2away to Araz31 October 2026
  • W3-2Sumqayıt23 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Kapaz18 October 2026
  • D1-1Şamaxı FK10 October 2026

Qabala

Premyer Liqa

  • D0-0Qarabag31 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Araz23 October 2026
  • L0-4Sabah FA17 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Sumqayıt10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Zira went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Zira scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Zira conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Qabala failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Qabala conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Qabala had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Zira115421615+119
10Qabala11227618-128

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zira vs Qabala

  • 3 May 2026Zira 1–0 QabalaPremyer Liqa
  • 22 November 2025Zira 1–0 QabalaPremyer Liqa
  • 25 August 2025Qabala 1–2 ZiraPremyer Liqa
  • 24 April 2024Qabala 0–2 ZiraCup
  • 7 April 2024Zira 4–0 QabalaPremyer Liqa
  • 3 April 2024Zira 2–1 QabalaCup

The result against the call

Zira beat Qabala 2–1. The model had made a win for Zira its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: D. Volkovi 11' for Zira, I. Akinade 14' for Qabala, D. Chrismael 89' for Zira.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Zira a 24.5% chance to finish in the top four: 26.5% after a win, 21.7% after a draw, 17.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.5%, 2 points higher than before the match.

For Qabala the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 37.7% going in: 29.2% after a win, 35.0% after a draw, 40.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.5%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.