7 November 2026, 12:00 UTC

Safa Baku vs Araz Premyer Liqa prediction & result

ASK Arena, Baku
Referee: A. Aghayev
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Safa Baku 2-2 Araz.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Safa Baku, 27% draw, 32% Araz — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Safa Baku at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Safa Baku4%Draw92%Araz4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽B. Dansoko
6'
A. Dragu
31'
31'
A. Rzayev
35'
⚽A. Salyanskiy
⚽A. Agcabayov
39'
43'
⚽M. Mara
🔁Luis Felipeout: T. Fuller
46'
E. Cafarov
65'
68'
🔁C. Boliout: O. Buludov
🔁I. Zulfugarliout: R. Huseynli
78'
🔁F. Yusifliout: V. Pop
83'
86'
O. Buludov
T. Fuller
87'
90+3'
M. Kane

Line-ups

Araz
Coach: Cavid Huseynov

Form going into Safa Baku vs Araz

Safa Baku

Premyer Liqa

  • D1-1away to Sumqayıt2 November 2026
  • L1-2Kapaz24 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Şamaxı FK16 October 2026
  • L0-1Turan11 October 2026

Araz

Premyer Liqa

  • D2-2Zira31 October 2026
  • L1-2Qabala23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Sumqayıt16 October 2026
  • L0-2Kapaz9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Safa Baku did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Safa Baku conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Safa Baku scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Araz did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Araz conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Araz scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premyer Liqa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Safa Baku11128820-125
12Araz110471123-124

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Safa Baku and Araz drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Safa Baku at 41% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: B. Dansoko 6' for Safa Baku, A. Salyanskiy 35' for Araz, A. Agcabayov 39' for Safa Baku, M. Mara 43' for Araz.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Safa Baku a 67.7% chance to finish in the bottom two: 60.9% after a win, 70.9% after a draw, 76.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 70.9%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

For Araz the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 64.1% going in: 56.6% after a win, 64.2% after a draw, 70.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 64.2%.

Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.