Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK Premyer Liqa prediction & result
Final score: Sabah FA 2-2 Şamaxı FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 73% Sabah FA, 17% draw, 10% Şamaxı FK — fair odds of 1.37, 5.88 and 10.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Sabah FA at 73%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK
Sabah FA
Premyer Liqa
- L2-3away to Turan30 October 2026
- D0-0Qarabag25 October 2026
- W4-0away to Qabala17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Neftchi Baku9 October 2026
Şamaxı FK
Premyer Liqa
- L2-3Neftchi Baku1 November 2026
- L1-2away to Imisli FK25 October 2026
- W3-2Safa Baku16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Zira10 October 2026
What these results say
- Sabah FA failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sabah FA kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Şamaxı FK scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Şamaxı FK conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Şamaxı FK.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sabah FA | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 21 |
| 7 | Şamaxı FK | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK
- 3 May 2026Şamaxı FK 0–3 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
- 23 November 2025Sabah FA 0–0 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
- 24 August 2025Şamaxı FK 1–2 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
- 9 May 2025Sabah FA 3–1 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
- 9 March 2025Şamaxı FK 1–0 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
- 22 December 2024Şamaxı FK 3–1 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
Leading scorers: Sabah FA and Şamaxı FK
Sabah FA
GoalsAssists
- U. Rahmonaliyev10
Şamaxı FK
No player in Premyer Liqa's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sabah FA and Şamaxı FK drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Sabah FA at 73% and given a draw 17%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: Carlos Eduardo 17' for Sabah FA, O. Mammadov 27' for Şamaxı FK, J. Mickels 49' for Sabah FA, R. Dashdamirov (own goal) 61' for Şamaxı FK.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sabah FA a 63.6% chance to finish top of the regular season: 65.7% after a win, 56.8% after a draw, 49.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 56.8%, 6.8 points lower than before the match.
For Şamaxı FK the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 6.9% going in: 11.5% after a win, 7.9% after a draw, 6.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 7.9%, 1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premyer Liqa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.