8 November 2026, 18:30 UTC

Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza
Referee: Matteo Marchetti
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Vicenza Virtus 1-4 Cremonese.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Vicenza Virtus, 29% draw, 34% Cremonese — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Vicenza Virtus at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vicenza Virtus0%Draw1%Cremonese99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

38'
⚽Federico Bonazzoliassist: Tommaso Barbieri
⚽Silvio Merkaj
41'
45'
🔁Adin Ličinaout: Salvatore Elia
51'
⚽Giuseppe Pezzella
🔁Marco Carraroout: Loris Zonta
62'
🔁Filippo Costaout: Tommaso Corazza
62'
🔁Nicola Rautiout: Claudio Morra
62'
65'
🔁Jari Vandeputteout: Marco Nasti
Nicolò Brighenti
67'
Loris Zonta
70'
🔁L. Caferriout: Alessandro Pietrelli
72'
Silvio Merkaj
76'
🔁Matteo Vescoviout: Giuseppe Cuomo
77'
78'
•Giuseppe Pezzella
80'
⚽Federico Bonazzoli (pen)
81'
🔁Federico Bonazzoliout: D. Stückler
86'
🔁Salvatore Eliaout: Dachi Lordkipanidze
86'
🔁Tommaso Bertiout: Alberto Grassi
90'
⚽D. Stücklerassist: Morten Thorsby

Match stats — Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese

54%Possession46%
10Shots16
5On target6
4Corners3
1.11xG2.75

Goals against chances

Vicenza Virtus1 from 1.11 xGabout what the chances were worth
Cremonese4 from 2.75 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Vicenza Virtus 3-4-2-1
  • 16R. GagnoG
  • 30M. VescoviD
  • 23N. BrighentiD
  • 5R. MarchizzaD
  • 28L. CaferriM
  • 8A. BellemoM
  • 4M. CarraroM
  • 32F. CostaM
  • 77A. RadaM
  • 7N. RautiM
  • 33S. MerkajF
Substitutes
  • 6M. LeverbeD
  • 14G. CuomoD
  • 11G. MonciniF
  • 9C. MorraF
  • 66A. PapettiD
  • 99A. PietrelliM
  • 27T. SandonD
  • 44R. TalaricoM
  • 68E. TantalocchiG
Coach: F. Gallo
Cremonese 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. FulignatiG
  • 4T. BarbieriD
  • 6F. BaschirottoD
  • 5S. LupertoD
  • 3G. PezzellaD
  • 8Simone Lottici TessadriM
  • 14T. BertiM
  • 10Adin LičinaM
  • 2M. ThorsbyM
  • 27J. VandeputteM
  • 90F. BonazzoliF
Substitutes
  • 22F. AgazziG
  • 18M. CollocoloM
  • 9M. De LucaF
  • 71S. EliaM
  • 12M. FestaG
  • 7D. StücklerF
  • 33A. GrassiM
  • 25D. LordkipanidzeM
  • 28simone marsiD
Coach: F. Pecchia

Form going into Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese

Vicenza Virtus

Serie B

  • L1-3away to Palermo1 November 2026
  • L1-2Modena27 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Empoli23 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Benevento17 October 2026

Cremonese

Serie B

  • W2-0Benevento31 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Mantova27 October 2026
  • L0-1Juve Stabia24 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Pisa17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Vicenza Virtus scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Vicenza Virtus failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Vicenza Virtus conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Cremonese scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Cremonese had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Vicenza Virtus112361424-109
9Cremonese114341412+215

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese

  • 22 February 2022Cremonese 0–0 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
  • 26 September 2021Vicenza Virtus 0–1 CremoneseSerie B
  • 2 March 2021Vicenza Virtus 3–1 CremoneseSerie B
  • 7 November 2020Cremonese 0–1 Vicenza VirtusSerie B

Leading scorers: Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese

Vicenza Virtus

GoalsAssists

  • S. Merkaj31

Cremonese

GoalsAssists

  • F. Bonazzoli62

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cremonese won 4–1 at Vicenza Virtus. The model had leaned towards a win for Vicenza Virtus at 37% and given a win for Cremonese 34%. The goals: Federico Bonazzoli 38' for Cremonese, Silvio Merkaj 41' for Vicenza Virtus, Giuseppe Pezzella 51' for Cremonese, Federico Bonazzoli (penalty) 80' for Cremonese, D. Stückler 90' for Cremonese. On expected goals it finished 1.11–2.75.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vicenza Virtus a 25.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 20.2% after a win, 26.8% after a draw, 29.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.8%, 4.5 points higher than before the match.

For Cremonese the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 8.1% going in: 4.7% after a win, 7.9% after a draw, 10.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.7%, 3.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Vicenza Virtus v Cremonese has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 37% / 29% / 34%: the biggest move is Vicenza Virtus's chance of winning, down 11 points.

  1. Vicenza Virtus win37%▼ −11
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. Cremonese win34%▲ +10

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.