Clausura - 9 · 15 September 2026, 00:15 UTC

Instituto Cordoba vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Presidente Peron, Cordoba
Full time2 1

Final score: Instituto Cordoba 2-1 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Instituto Cordoba, 29% draw, 25% Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Instituto Cordoba 1.71, Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0.95.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Instituto Cordoba vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

51%
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-0 11%2-0 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Instituto Cordoba at 46% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
Tomas Gonzalez
35'
🔁R. Lozanoout: G. Gonzalez
39'
Alejandro Cabrera
Gustavo Abregú
48'
G. Cerato
49'
Giuliano Cerato
51'
🔁F. R. Alarconout: A. Massaccesi
53'
Giuliano Cerato
57'
Matías Tissera
63'
🔁J. Lazaroout: J. E. Cordoba Mosquera
68'
🔁M. Tisseraout: N. Guerra
68'
L. Mosevichassist: G. Abregu
73'
75'
M. Ledesma (OG)
77'
🔁T. Gonzalezout: S. Rosane
77'
🔁F. Rodriguezout: J. Chala
77'
🔁I. Hesarout: J. Ferreira
🔁J. Mendezout: J. Acevedo
80'
85'
🔁M. Valienteout: M. Garnerone

Match stats — Instituto Cordoba vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

41%Possession59%
13Shots11
4On target5
2Corners3
0.62xG0.92

Goals against chances

Instituto Cordoba2 from 0.62 xGmore than the chances were worth
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto1 from 0.92 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Instituto Cordoba 3-4-2-1
  • 29M. LedesmaG
  • 30J. GalvanD
  • 26L. MosevichD
  • 6F. R. AlarconD
  • 44G. CeratoM
  • 55G. AbreguM
  • 13J. MendezM
  • 3D. SosaM
  • 21J. LazaroF
  • 10A. LunaF
  • 17M. TisseraF
Substitutes
  • 35E. O. Sittaro MirandaG
  • 2H. De La FuenteD
  • 22A. MassaccesiD
  • 32A. BravoD
  • 19L. SansevieroF
  • 23A. MeliD
  • 8J. AcevedoM
  • 14W. VieraM
  • 9F. SuarezF
Coach: Diego Flores
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 3-1-4-2
  • 1L. BrueraG
  • 6J. AntoniniD
  • 2G. MaffiniD
  • 31M. ValentiD
  • 5A. CabreraM
  • 45R. LozanoM
  • 10T. GonzalezM
  • 17G. AlanisM
  • 23F. RodriguezM
  • 22M. ValienteF
  • 77I. HesarF
Substitutes
  • 43A. LastraG
  • 14G. GonzalezD
  • 3L. BanosD
  • 28F. CobosD
  • 29A. QuirogaD
  • 8S. RosaneM
  • 11M. GarneroneF
  • 99J. ChalaM
  • 9J. FerreiraF
Coach: Ruben Forestello

Form going into Instituto Cordoba vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Instituto Cordoba

  • L2-3away to Union Santa Fe8 September 2026
  • W1-0San Lorenzo1 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Atletico Tucuman22 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago16 August 2026

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

  • L0-2Sarmiento Junin4 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Huracan29 August 2026
  • D0-0San Lorenzo21 August 2026
  • L0-1Atletico Tucuman17 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Independiente Rivadavia8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Instituto Cordoba vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

  • 15 September 2026Instituto Cordoba 2–1 Estudiantes de Rio CuartoLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 5 May 2026Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 0–2 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 14 February 2022Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1–1 Instituto CordobaPrimera Nacional

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.71 goals for Instituto Cordoba and 0.95 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto; the game produced 2 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: G. Cerato 49' (Instituto Cordoba), L. Mosevich 73' (Instituto Cordoba), M. Ledesma 75' (Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Instituto Cordoba the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Instituto Cordoba against 0.95 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto. Instituto Cordoba's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.18 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto.