Frosinone vs Lecce Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Frosinone 5-1 Lecce.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Frosinone, 25% draw, 22% Lecce — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Frosinone at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Frosinone vs Lecce
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22L. PalmisaniG
- 20A. OyonoD
- 3G. CalvaniD
- 30I. MonterisiD
- 71A. TerzićD
- 14G. CalòM
- 16Matteo CichellaM
- 7F. GhedjemisM
- 10R. SchmidM
- 17G. KvernadzeM
- 9A. RaimondoF
- 90E. TchatoD
- 24A. ZerbinF
- 5W. AmeyD
- 25K. AkpogumaD
- 11D. BîrligeaF
- 89T. BobčekF
- 79G. BracagliaD
- 2G. CittadiniD
- 91S. DesplanchesG
- 30W. FalconeG
- 5J. SiebertD
- 44Tiago GabrielD
- 3C. NdabaD
- 17Danilo VeigaM
- 14Y. MalehM
- 79O. NgomM
- 25A. GalloM
- 16O. GandelmanM
- 99Joël MonteiroM
- 22Paco EstebanF
- 31E. ScottD
- 11K. N’DriF
- 77M. KabaM
- 18G. JeanD
- 28Olaf GorterM
- 8S. FofanaM
- 7A. Ahmed FatahF
- 2A. DembéléD
- 32A. BorbeiG
Form going into Frosinone vs Lecce
Frosinone
Serie A
- D4-4away to Atalanta25 October 2026
- W4-2Sassuolo16 October 2026
Lecce
Serie A
- L0-2Juventus25 October 2026
- W3-0away to Udinese18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Frosinone | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 20 |
| 14 | Lecce | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Frosinone vs Lecce
Frosinone and Lecce have met 7 times in the records we hold, Lecce has won 3 of them to Frosinone's 1, with 3 drawn.
The record
Frosinone won the last one 5–1 on 29 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 10 |
| Lecce | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 29 Oct 2026
Serie AFrosinone 5–1 Lecce - 3 Mar 2024
Serie AFrosinone 1–1 Lecce - 16 Dec 2023
Serie ALecce 2–1 Frosinone - 2 Apr 2022
Serie BLecce 1–0 Frosinone - 20 Nov 2021
Serie BFrosinone 0–0 Lecce - 20 Mar 2021
Serie BFrosinone 0–3 Lecce - 12 Dec 2020
Serie BLecce 2–2 Frosinone
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Frosinone's attack rates 85% above Lecce's, and Frosinone concede 7% fewer than Lecce. That gives Frosinone the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Frosinone and Lecce
Frosinone
GoalsAssists
- A. Raimondo80
- G. Calò51
Lecce
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Frosinone beat Lecce 5–1. The model had made a win for Frosinone its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Matteo Cichella 25' for Frosinone, Giacomo Calò (penalty) 45+1' for Frosinone, Antonio Raimondo 59' for Frosinone, Daniel Birligea 72' for Frosinone, Joel Almada Monteiro 82' for Lecce, Daniel Birligea 90+4' for Frosinone. On expected goals it finished 3.11–1.47.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Frosinone a 10.2% chance to finish in the top four: 11.7% after a win, 8.1% after a draw, 6.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.7%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.
For Lecce the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 27.2% going in: 17.3% after a win, 24.5% after a draw, 30.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.9%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Frosinone v Lecce has moved
First published on 15 Oct at 50% / 28% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 53% / 25% / 22%: the biggest move is Frosinone's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Frosinone win53%▲ +3
- Draw25%▼ −3
- Lecce win22%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.