19 September 2026, 15:00 UTC

Kisvarda FC vs Paks NB I prediction & result

Varkert Stadium, Kisvarda
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Kisvarda FC 0-1 Paks.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Kisvarda FC, 25% draw, 21% Paks — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Kisvarda FC at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kisvarda FC0%Draw7%Paks93%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Á Ésikout: Gennadiy Szikszai
45'
45'
🔁milan gyorfiout: M. Simuț
45'
🔁Milan Petőout: János Hahn
🔁Tonislav Yordanovout: Teslim Abdulateef Balogun
68'
🔁Christián Hercout: Bence Bíró
68'
71'
⚽Bence Lenzsér
72'
🔁Erik Silyeout: Andor Lapu
82'
Zsolt Haraszti
83'
🔁Zsolt Harasztiout: József Windecker
🔁Marko Matanovicout: Soma Novothny
86'
🔁Krisztian Nagyout: Jasmin Mešanović
86'
90+2'
🔁Kristóf Pappout: Kevin Horvath

Match stats — Kisvarda FC vs Paks

54%Possession46%
15Shots13
3On target4
9Corners9

Line-ups

Kisvarda FC 4-4-2
  • 23I. PopovichG
  • 55K. NagyD
  • 42T. LippaiD
  • 4M. ChlumeckýD
  • 10D. SoltészD
  • 11M. MatanovićM
  • 24C. HercM
  • 80H. MbockM
  • 77Ákos ÉsikM
  • 99T. YordanovF
  • 14B. MelnykF
Substitutes
  • 29B. BíróF
  • 18K. KörmendiM
  • 1M. KovácsG
  • 27J. MešanovićF
  • 86S. NovothnyF
  • 6Maxim OsztrovkaM
  • 25B. ŠerbečićD
  • 70L. SzőrM
  • 22A. YougaM
Coach: A. Supka
Paks 5-4-1
  • 28M. GyetvánG
  • 6M. GyőrfiD
  • 24B. LenzsérD
  • 15C. BelényesiD
  • 5B. VécseiD
  • 14E. SilyeD
  • 17M. PetőM
  • 21K. PappM
  • 8B. BaloghM
  • 10Z. HarasztiM
  • 7J. SzalaiF
Substitutes
  • 12G. VasD
  • 29B. TóthF
  • 1Á. KovácsikG
  • 19K. HorváthM
  • 9J. HahnF
  • 30J. SzabóD
  • 22J. WindeckerM
  • 16B. WiesnerF
  • 20M. SimuțD
Coach: G. Bognár

Form going into Kisvarda FC vs Paks

Kisvarda FC

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to MTK Budapest5 September 2026
  • D1-1Gyori ETO FC30 August 2026
  • D0-0Debreceni VSC23 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Nyiregyhaza15 August 2026
  • L2-4Ujpest8 August 2026

Paks

All competitions we cover

  • L2-4Debreceni VSC5 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Nyiregyhaza29 August 2026
  • W2-0Ujpest21 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Puskas Academy16 August 2026
  • D2-2Budapest Honved9 August 2026

What these results say

  • Kisvarda FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Kisvarda FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Kisvarda FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Paks scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Paks failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Paks conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Kisvarda FC132651215-312
5Paks136252422+220

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kisvarda FC vs Paks

  • 28 February 2026Kisvarda FC 2–1 PaksNB I
  • 8 November 2025Paks 5–3 Kisvarda FCNB I
  • 3 August 2025Kisvarda FC 1–5 PaksNB I
  • 2 April 2025Kisvarda FC 0–1 PaksMagyar Kupa
  • 18 May 2024Paks 2–1 Kisvarda FCNB I

Leading scorers: Kisvarda FC and Paks

Kisvarda FC

No player in NB I's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Paks

GoalsAssists

  • M. Pető61
  • J. Szalai61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Paks won 1–0 at Kisvarda FC. The model had leaned towards a win for Kisvarda FC at 54% and given a win for Paks 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: Bence Lenzsér 71' for Paks.

How the call on Kisvarda FC v Paks has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 51% / 24% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 54% / 25% / 21%: the biggest move is Paks's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Kisvarda FC win54%▲ +3
  2. Draw25%▲ +1
  3. Paks win21%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.