Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep FK Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Kocaelispor 2-0 Gaziantep FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Kocaelispor, 31% draw, 29% Gaziantep FK — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Kocaelispor at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep FK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 83Serhat ÖztaşdelenG
- 22Uğur Kaan YıldızD
- 2Anfernee Jamal DijksteelD
- 5Emir OrtakayaD
- 21Massadio HaïdaraD
- 14ShowM
- 10Berkan KutluM
- 20Mahamadou SusohoM
- 11Gonçalo SousaF
- 97Florian AyéF
- 26Metehan AltunbaşF
- 3Muharrem CinanD
- 32Makana BakuM
- 7Dan AgyeiF
- 27Ege BilimM
- 75Tayfur BingölD
- 23Onurcan PiriG
- 16Deniz CeylanD
- 41Onur ÖztongaD
- 17Arda OzyarF
- 25Kacper TobiaszG
- 2Luis PérezD
- 4Arda KızıldağD
- 14Myenty AbenaD
- 23Kerim ÇalhanoğluD
- 6Ulrich MelekeM
- 18Deian SorescuM
- 8Gidado Victor Ntino-EmoM
- 44Alexandru MaximM
- 10Kacper KozłowskiM
- 28Halil DervişoğluF
- 3Drissa CamaraM
- 22Sontje HansenF
- 7Juninho BacunaM
- 19Serdar DursunF
- 9Trivante StewartF
- 35Ataberk DadakdenizG
- 5Efe SarıkayaD
- 21Abakar SyllaD
- 61Ogün ÖzçiçekM
Form going into Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep FK
Kocaelispor
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Galatasaray13 September 2026
- W1-0Samsunspor6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Konyaspor29 August 2026
- W2-0Amed24 August 2026
- L0-2away to Başakşehir16 August 2026
Gaziantep FK
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Fenerbahçe14 September 2026
- W4-2away to Göztepe7 September 2026
- L1-2Rizespor29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Eyüpspor23 August 2026
- D1-1Alanyaspor15 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kocaelispor had two goals or fewer.
- Gaziantep FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 19 |
| 16 | Gaziantep FK | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep FK
- 15 February 2026Kocaelispor 3–0 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
- 13 January 2026Gaziantep FK 1–0 KocaelisporTürkiye Kupası
- 14 September 2025Gaziantep FK 2–0 KocaelisporSüper Lig
- 16 December 2020Gaziantep FK 3–2 KocaelisporTürkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Kocaelispor and Gaziantep FK
Kocaelispor
GoalsAssists
- B. Kutlu51
Gaziantep FK
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Kocaelispor beat Gaziantep FK 2–0. The model had made a win for Kocaelispor its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: B. Kutlu 56' for Kocaelispor, D. Agyei 76' for Kocaelispor. On expected goals it finished 1.16–0.88.
How the call on Kocaelispor v Gaziantep FK has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 38% / 31% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 40% / 31% / 29%: the biggest move is Kocaelispor's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Kocaelispor win40%▲ +2
- Draw31%=
- Gaziantep FK win29%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.