Korona Kielce
vs
Gornik Zabrze
Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Korona Kielce 0-2 Gornik Zabrze.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Korona Kielce, 30% draw, 36% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Korona Kielce 1.25, Gornik Zabrze 1.29.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gornik Zabrze at 36% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze
Line-ups
- 1X. DziekońskiG
- 71W. DługoszD
- 23S. RubežićD
- 2A. MosórD
- 6M. PięczekD
- 32O. LingrM
- 35Kamil JakubczykM
- 8M. RemacleM
- 18P. HellebrandM
- 19M. AmeyawM
- 14M. StępińskiF
- 67N. BarczakD
- 44K. SotiriouD
- 24B. SmolarczykD
- 10NonoM
- 30C. MenaM
- 11K. MatuszewskiD
- 87R. MamlaG
- 99Daniel BakF
- 21K. CiszekD
- 1P. SchulzeG
- 61M. SáčekD
- 26R. JanickiD
- 20Josema SánchezD
- 64E. JanžaD
- 82K. UrbaÅskiM
- 14J. KubickiM
- 8Paulo BernardoM
- 19PeterF
- 11E. PrekopF
- 33M. KhlanF
- 66M. DietzD
- 28B. DonioM
- 6M. HøjholtM
- 7Y. Ikia DimiM
- 29W. KaniaG
- 23S. LisethF
- 99T. LoskaG
- 18L. SadílekM
- 24K. SemikM
Form going into Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze
Korona Kielce
- W2-1away to Slask Wroclaw12 September 2026
- D1-1Wisla Krakow5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Wisla Plock28 August 2026
- D1-1Motor Lublin22 August 2026
Gornik Zabrze
- W2-1Lech Poznan12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cracovia Krakow6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Raków Częstochowa3 September 2026
- L2-3GKS Katowice30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 12 |
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze
- 18 April 2026Gornik Zabrze 1–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 18 October 2025Korona Kielce 1–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 24 May 2025Gornik Zabrze 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 1 December 2024Korona Kielce 2–4 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 19 February 2024Gornik Zabrze 3–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 12 August 2023Korona Kielce 0–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Korona Kielce and Gornik Zabrze
Korona Kielce
- M. Stępiński4 goals
- M. Faßbender3 goals
Gornik Zabrze
- Peter4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.25 goals for Korona Kielce and 1.29 for Gornik Zabrze; the game produced 0 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Peter Federico González Carmona 41' (Gornik Zabrze), Peter Federico González Carmona 90' (Gornik Zabrze).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gornik Zabrze the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Korona Kielce against 1.29 for Gornik Zabrze. Korona Kielce's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.08 for Gornik Zabrze.