Beitar Jerusalem
vs
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Beitar Jerusalem 3-1 Maccabi Petah Tikva.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Beitar Jerusalem, 27% draw, 24% Maccabi Petah Tikva — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Beitar Jerusalem 1.93, Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.02.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Beitar Jerusalem at 49% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
Line-ups
- 55Miguel SilvaG
- 14R. ElimelechD
- 4B. CarabalíD
- 44L. GadraniD
- 11T. MuziD
- 30T. YosefiM
- 40B. EnowM
- 26D. WorkoM
- 77O. AtziliF
- 19S. WeissmanF
- 13E. AnsahF
- 8Z. ShimolM
- 5G. CohenD
- 25L. DeriD
- 9J. KaluF
- 15N. MucheM
- 22Y. OzerG
- 91N. ShedoF
- 7Y. ShuaF
- 10A. YonaM
- 39M. ErlichG
- 26G. DeznetD
- 18E. TibiD
- 22Bashar AbdachD
- 17A. SalemD
- 9S. OwusuM
- 21I. SoumahM
- 20I. CohenM
- 77J. CortésM
- 97M. RakonjacF
- 53L. HazanF
- 10A. LugassyF
- 27Y. KorenF
- 6E. YaoD
- 99Eyal InbrumF
- 1D. HevronG
- 8Dan Lee-YamD
- 30O. DadyaD
- 12I. BaruchD
- 7K. SpenceF
Form going into Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
Beitar Jerusalem
- W1-0away to Bnei Sakhnin7 September 2026
- L0-3away to Hapoel Tel Aviv3 September 2026
- L1-4Maccabi Netanya29 August 2026
Maccabi Petah Tikva
- L1-2Ironi Tiberias5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Bnei Sakhnin29 August 2026
- W2-1Ironi Kiryat Shmona22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Beitar Jerusalem | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 6 |
| 6 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Beitar Jerusalem vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
- 15 September 2026Beitar Jerusalem 3–1 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
- 2 March 2025Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–2 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 4 December 2024Beitar Jerusalem 5–0 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
- 19 August 2024Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–4 Beitar JerusalemToto Cup Ligat Al
- 20 May 2024Beitar Jerusalem 1–1 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
- 16 March 2024Maccabi Petah Tikva 0–3 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Beitar Jerusalem and Maccabi Petah Tikva
Beitar Jerusalem
- O. Atzili1 goals1 assists
Maccabi Petah Tikva
- S. Owusu2 goals1 assists
- J. Cortés1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.93 goals for Beitar Jerusalem and 1.02 for Maccabi Petah Tikva; the game produced 3 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Shon Weissman 19' (Beitar Jerusalem), Omer Atzili 28' (Beitar Jerusalem), Johnbosco Samuel Kalu 87' (Beitar Jerusalem), Yoav Koren 89' (Maccabi Petah Tikva).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beitar Jerusalem the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Beitar Jerusalem against 1.02 for Maccabi Petah Tikva. Beitar Jerusalem's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/2.47 for Maccabi Petah Tikva.