Raków Częstochowa
vs
Zaglebie Lubin
Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Raków Częstochowa 2-3 Zaglebie Lubin.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Raków Częstochowa, 28% draw, 35% Zaglebie Lubin — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Raków Częstochowa 1.52, Zaglebie Lubin 1.46.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Raków Częstochowa at 37% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin
Line-ups
- 1K. TrelowskiG
- 7F. TudorD
- 25B. RacovițanD
- 4S. SvarnasD
- 20Jean CarlosM
- 6O. RepkaM
- 10V. KocherginM
- 5M. BulatM
- 21T. PieńkoM
- 9P. MakuchF
- 11M. EmreliF
- 39I. BrusbergF
- 99Adam BasseF
- 77D. DebohiD
- 17J. JendrykaM
- 71T. KarićG
- 44B. MirčetićM
- 88A. MolnarM
- 22A. OjoM
- 36M. PerovićM
- 33Z. AlomerovićG
- 5A. ŁawniczakD
- 25M. NalepaD
- 3R. YakubaD
- 31I. OrlikowskiM
- 39F. KocabaM
- 8D. DąbrowskiM
- 6D. ČolinaM
- 44M. RegułaF
- 18F. SzymczakF
- 71K. NowogońskiF
- 20M. DziewiatowskiM
- 37S. KerkM
- 26J. KolanM
- 9M. KosidisF
- 77P. KosmalskiM
- 4D. MichalskiD
- 88M. MlinarićF
- 99C. PopielecM
- 7J. SypekM
Form going into Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin
Raków Częstochowa
- W2-1Motor Lublin11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lech Poznan6 September 2026
- L1-2Gornik Zabrze3 September 2026
- L2-5Jagiellonia30 August 2026
Zaglebie Lubin
- W2-1GKS Katowice12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Wieczysta Kraków7 September 2026
- D0-0Pogon Szczecin29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Radomiak Radom23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 3 |
| 4 | Zaglebie Lubin | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs Zaglebie Lubin
- 14 February 2026Zaglebie Lubin 0–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 14 December 2025Raków Częstochowa 0–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 31 March 2025Zaglebie Lubin 0–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 22 September 2024Raków Częstochowa 5–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 4 May 2024Zaglebie Lubin 2–0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 5 November 2023Raków Częstochowa 5–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Raków Częstochowa and Zaglebie Lubin
Raków Częstochowa
- P. Makuch5 goals
- M. Emreli3 goals1 assists
Zaglebie Lubin
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.52 goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.46 for Zaglebie Lubin; the game produced 2 and 3.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Marko Bulat 45' (Raków Częstochowa), Michał Nalepa 70' (Zaglebie Lubin), Marcel Regula 87' (Zaglebie Lubin), Patryk Makuch 90' (Raków Częstochowa), Damian Michalski 90' (Zaglebie Lubin).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Raków Częstochowa the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa against 1.46 for Zaglebie Lubin. Raków Częstochowa's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.21 for Zaglebie Lubin.