Ajax
vs
Willem II
Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Ajax 5-1 Willem II.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Ajax, 26% draw, 21% Willem II — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Ajax 2.21, Willem II 0.98.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Ajax vs Willem II
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ajax at 53% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 634 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ajax vs Willem II
Line-ups
- 26M. PaesG
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 6T. KehrerD
- 15Y. BaasD
- 5O. WijndalD
- 18D. KlaassenM
- 24J. MokioM
- 8J. BrandtM
- 23S. BerghuisF
- 9K. DolbergF
- 10O. GloukhF
- 99T. ArokodareF
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 20O. EdvardsenF
- 3A. GaaeiD
- 36D. JanseD
- 12Caio HenriqueD
- 68A. OuazaneM
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
- 51C. SetfordG
- 26M. DelangheG
- 5H. ter AvestD
- 3F. StamD
- 23M. DekkerD
- 24N. Tjoe-A-OnD
- 6C. TwigtM
- 52T. VilhenaM
- 22Per van LoonM
- 19Uriel van AalstM
- 7J. SloryM
- 9D. HaenF
- 83M. LemmensD
- 2A. CiranniD
- 15A. Et-TaïbiD
- 50E. GürbüzF
- 14Jens MathijsenD
- 17O. MartinF
- 10J. SchuurmanM
- 28T. VerheydtF
- 18Anass ZarroukM
Form going into Ajax vs Willem II
Ajax
- W5-1away to Fortuna Sittard12 September 2026
- L1-3PSV Eindhoven5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Telstar30 August 2026
- D2-2Heerenveen16 August 2026
Willem II
- D1-1away to AZ Alkmaar11 September 2026
- L0-3Excelsior5 September 2026
- D2-2Heerenveen30 August 2026
- L1-4NEC Nijmegen15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ajax | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 13 |
| 17 | Willem II | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ajax vs Willem II
- 13 April 2025Willem II 1–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 27 October 2024Ajax 1–0 Willem IIEredivisie
- 19 February 2022Willem II 0–1 AjaxEredivisie
- 2 December 2021Ajax 5–0 Willem IIEredivisie
- 28 January 2021Ajax 3–1 Willem IIEredivisie
- 23 December 2020Willem II 1–1 AjaxEredivisie
Leading scorers: Ajax and Willem II
Ajax
- J. Brandt3 goals
- D. Klaassen3 goals
Willem II
- D. Haen3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.21 goals for Ajax and 0.98 for Willem II; the game produced 5 and 1.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Davy Klaassen 41' (Ajax), Julian Brandt 45' (Ajax), Viktor Tsygankov 69' (Ajax), Oscar Gloukh 74' (Ajax), Alessandro Ciranni 76' (Willem II), Kasper Dolberg 87' (Ajax).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ajax the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Ajax against 0.98 for Willem II. Ajax's attack/defence rating is 1/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.36 for Willem II.