Leon
vs
Atletico San Luis
Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Leon 2-0 Atletico San Luis.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Leon, 29% draw, 30% Atletico San Luis — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Leon 1.48, Atletico San Luis 1.09.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Leon vs Atletico San Luis
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leon at 41% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leon vs Atletico San Luis
Line-ups
- 23O. GarciaG
- 7I. MorenoD
- 14J. RomanaD
- 3J. GuevaraD
- 26S. ReyesD
- 29I. RodriguezM
- 16J. CortizoM
- 20R. EcheverriaM
- 203J. LaraM
- 13D. ArcilaM
- 27D. CambindoF
- 181I. MartinezG
- 185C. Mora
- 4B. ColulaD
- 25P. BellonD
- 33A. VillegasD
- 6F. Beltran Cruz
- 15S. FierroM
- 18E. GuerraM
- 11I. DiazF
- 25M. G. LajudG
- 30B. GalindoD
- 31E. AguilaD
- 18A. CruzD
- 2R. TorresM
- 21O. MaciasM
- 10S. Salles-LamongeM
- 17A. DuarteM
- 22R. LlorenteF
- 11D. RodriguezF
- 26S. PerezF
- 23C. I. Lopez De AlbaG
- 6JuanpeD
- 5R. MerazM
- 7B. GaldamesM
- 13J. CaicedoM
- 14M. GarciaM
- 99F. MoraF
- 19S. MunozF
- 8R. NajeraM
Form going into Leon vs Atletico San Luis
Leon
- L1-3away to Pumas UNAM11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlante FC29 August 2026
- W2-0Monterrey22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Necaxa18 August 2026
Atletico San Luis
- L0-3Guadalajara Chivas5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Monterrey31 August 2026
- D1-1CF Pachuca23 August 2026
- L0-3away to Club America16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Leon | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 16 | Atletico San Luis | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leon vs Atletico San Luis
- 15 September 2026Leon 2–0 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 22 March 2026Atletico San Luis 1–2 LeonLiga MX
- 14 July 2025Leon 0–1 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 17 February 2025Atletico San Luis 1–2 LeonLiga MX
- 21 September 2024Leon 1–0 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 24 February 2024Leon 1–0 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
Leading scorers: Leon and Atletico San Luis
Leon
- D. Cambindo3 goals1 assists
- D. Arcila3 goals
Atletico San Luis
- Rafa Llorente3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.48 goals for Leon and 1.09 for Atletico San Luis; the game produced 2 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Diber Cambindo 49' (Leon), Diber Cambindo 71' (Leon).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leon the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Leon against 1.09 for Atletico San Luis. Leon's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.23 for Atletico San Luis.