6 September 2026, 17:15 UTC

Kristiansund BK vs Tromso Eliteserien prediction & result

Kristiansund Stadion, Kristiansund
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Kristiansund BK 2-0 Tromso.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Kristiansund BK, 31% draw, 33% Tromso — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Kristiansund BK at 36% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kristiansund BK99%Draw1%Tromso0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽L. Alvheimassist: M. Elvius
14'
22'
Vince Osuji
Marius Elvius
25'
46'
🔁V. Osujiout: M. Jatta
46'
🔁L. O. Larsenout: J. Grundt
50'
Musa Jatta
54'
Sander Innvær
🔁G. Christensenout: D. Tufekcic
56'
🔁J. Kitolanoout: F. Flex
66'
🔁Z. Bytyqiout: W. Igor
66'
66'
🔁M. Bjorloout: V. Erlien
🔁J. Isaksenout: T. Svendsen
75'
🔁S. Svendsenout: A. Ronning
75'
⚽L. Alvheimassist: W. Igor
77'
78'
🔁H. Larsenout: N. Hristov
89'
🔁S. Innvaerout: M. Mikkelsen

Match stats — Kristiansund BK vs Tromso

42%Possession58%
9Shots8
2On target3
4Corners7
0.65xG0.35

Goals against chances

Kristiansund BK2 from 0.65 xGmore than the chances were worth
Tromso0 from 0.35 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kristiansund BK 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. LansingG
  • 59M. ElviusD
  • 4J. JuliussonD
  • 5D. UlvestadD
  • 25J. KitolanoD
  • 10H. BrusethM
  • 6J. IsaksenM
  • 24G. ChristensenM
  • 7S. SvendsenM
  • 11Z. BytyqiM
  • 19L. AlvheimF
Substitutes
  • 12A. SaetherG
  • 22H. HaugenD
  • 17M. WilliamsenD
  • 3F. FlexD
  • 23T. SvendsenM
  • 14S. SkeideM
  • 27A. RonningF
  • 20W. IgorM
  • 16D. TufekcicM
Coach: Amund Skiri
Tromso 5-3-2
  • 1J. HaugaardG
  • 37S. InnvaerD
  • 24V. OsujiD
  • 21L. HienD
  • 30I. VadebuD
  • 29A. Thongla-Iad WarnerydD
  • 7L. O. LarsenM
  • 5D. EdvardssonM
  • 70M. BjorloM
  • 10T. NyhammerF
  • 22H. LarsenF
Substitutes
  • 12O. LauvliG
  • 33M. JattaD
  • 27M. MikkelsenM
  • 8J. GrundtM
  • 40E. MolundD
  • 17I. DahlqvistM
  • 18N. HristovF
  • 15V. ErlienF
Coach: Jorgen Vik

Form going into Kristiansund BK vs Tromso

Kristiansund BK

  • D2-2away to Ham-Kam30 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Fredrikstad16 August 2026
  • W2-1Molde9 August 2026

Tromso

  • D0-0Sarpsborg 08 FF30 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Molde16 August 2026
  • W6-2away to Aalesund2 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Kristiansund BK2054112037-1719
4Tromso2010553727+1035

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kristiansund BK vs Tromso

  • 6 September 2026Kristiansund BK 2–0 TromsoEliteserien
  • 11 April 2026Tromso 2–0 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
  • 30 November 2025Kristiansund BK 1–3 TromsoEliteserien
  • 24 September 2025Tromso 2–1 Kristiansund BKNM Cupen
  • 20 April 2025Tromso 2–3 Kristiansund BKEliteserien
  • 28 July 2024Tromso 0–0 Kristiansund BKEliteserien

Leading scorers: Kristiansund BK and Tromso

Kristiansund BK

  • L. Alvheim10 goals

Tromso

  • H. Larsen9 goals3 assists
  • J. Hjertø-Dahl7 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.