8 November 2026, 18:45 UTC

Aucas vs Independiente del Valle Liga Pro prediction & result

Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito
Referee: Yerson Zambrano
Full time2 – 4

Final score: Aucas 2-4 Independiente del Valle.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Aucas, 25% draw, 47% Independiente del Valle — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Independiente del Valle at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aucas0%Draw1%Independiente del Valle99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
⚽Mateo Carabajalassist: Junior Sornoza
37'
⚽Carlos Gonzálezassist: Junior Sornoza
⚽Santiago Moralesassist: Piero Andrés Guzmán Arrobo
41'
45'
⚽Junior Sornoza
🔁Rafael Monti Azpiazúout: Michael Carcelen
45'
🔁Ariel Garcíaout: Luis Arroyo
45'
62'
⚽Junior Sornozaassist: Ronald Briones
69'
🔁Ronald Brionesout: Jhegson Mendez Carabali
69'
🔁Aron Rodríguezout: Jesús Adrian Carabalí Yubi
69'
🔁Junior Sornozaout: Youri Ochoa
🔁B. Oyolaout: Cristhoper Zambrano
74'
Agostino Spina
79'
80'
🔁Yandri Vásquezout: Kelvin Jeremía Montaño Arroyo
80'
🔁Carlos Gonzálezout: Djorkaeff Reascos
Luis Gustavino
82'
85'
Jhegson Mendez Carabali
⚽Michael Carcelenassist: Piero Andrés Guzmán Arrobo
90+2'

Match stats — Aucas vs Independiente del Valle

36%Possession64%
13Shots13
6On target4
7Corners4
0.87xG1.01

Goals against chances

Aucas2 from 0.87 xGmore than the chances were worth
Independiente del Valle4 from 1.01 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Aucas 4-1-4-1
  • 1I. ChavesG
  • 37A. ZovaD
  • 16L. GustavinoD
  • 2S. MoralesD
  • 63A. GarciaD
  • 5ThiagoM
  • 30B. OyolaM
  • 21P. GuzmánM
  • 6A. SpinaM
  • 28R. QuiñónezM
  • 9R. Monti AzpiazuF
Substitutes
  • 11A. BolañosF
  • 7J. AndradeF
  • 29Luis Aldair Arroyo CabezaF
  • 31B. CarabalíD
  • 34M. CarcelénM
  • 20D. EspinosaF
  • 13Hamilton Emanuel Piedra OrdóñezG
  • 17C. ZambranoF
Coach: N. Araujo
Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. QuintanaG
  • 13Daykol Alejandro Romero PadillaD
  • 14M. CarabajalD
  • 5R. SchunkeD
  • 19L. LoorD
  • 6J. AlcívarM
  • 52Y. VásquezM
  • 16R. BrionesM
  • 10J. SornozaM
  • 17A. RodríguezM
  • 9C. GonzálezF
Substitutes
  • 22G. VillarG
  • 23Juan ViacavaD
  • 33Andy René Velasco GarcíaD
  • 99D. ReascoF
  • 55Hans Stalin Peralta MontezumaM
  • 8Y. OchoaM
  • 32J. MéndezM
  • 51Kelvin Jeremía Montaño ArroyoM
  • 20A. GómezM
Coach: Joaquín Papa

Form going into Aucas vs Independiente del Valle

Aucas

Liga Pro

  • W2-1away to Universidad Catolica Quito1 November 2026
  • L0-4Barcelona SC25 October 2026
  • D1-1LDU de Quito17 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Independiente del Valle10 October 2026

Independiente del Valle

Liga Pro

  • W2-0LDU de Quito1 November 2026
  • D0-0Universidad Catolica Quito23 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Macara17 October 2026
  • W2-1Aucas10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Aucas conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Aucas failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Aucas scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Independiente del Valle had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Aucas36159124042-254
1Independiente del Valle3527358137+4484

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Aucas vs Independiente del Valle

  • 10 October 2026Independiente del Valle 2–1 AucasLiga Pro
  • 16 July 2026Aucas 0–3 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
  • 14 March 2026Independiente del Valle 2–2 AucasLiga Pro
  • 19 July 2025Independiente del Valle 2–1 AucasLiga Pro
  • 28 March 2025Aucas 1–2 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
  • 1 September 2024Aucas 0–2 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro

Leading scorers: Aucas and Independiente del Valle

Aucas

No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.

Independiente del Valle

GoalsAssists

  • C. González111
  • D. Reasco94
  • M. Perelló84

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Independiente del Valle won 4–2 at Aucas. The model had made a win for Independiente del Valle its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Mateo Carabajal 15' for Independiente del Valle, Carlos González 37' for Independiente del Valle, Santiago Morales 41' for Aucas, Junior Sornoza 45' for Independiente del Valle, Junior Sornoza 62' for Independiente del Valle, Michael Carcelen 90+2' for Aucas. On expected goals it finished 0.87–1.01.

How the call on Aucas v Independiente del Valle has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 30% / 26% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 28% / 25% / 47%: the biggest move is Independiente del Valle's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Aucas win28%▼ −2
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Independiente del Valle win47%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.