18 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

KuPS vs VPS Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Vare Areena, Kuopio
Referee: Antti Munukka
Full time2 – 0

Final score: KuPS 2-0 VPS.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% KuPS, 25% draw, 19% VPS — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

KuPS at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

KuPS99%Draw1%VPS0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Arttu Lötjönen
3'
⚽Jaime Moreno (pen)
11'
24'
Casper Holmelund
⚽Bob Nii Armahassist: Jaime Moreno
34'
45'
🔁Xavier Odhiamboout: Wilson Samake
45'
🔁Casper Holmelundout: Henri Salomaa
49'
Jayden Turfkruier
🔁Petteri Pennanenout: Saikou Touray
66'
66'
🔁Antti-Ville Raisanenout: Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi
🔁Samuel Pasanenout: Gustav Engvall
66'
66'
🔁Joonas Vahteraout: Simon Lindholm
🔁Bob Nii Armahout: Julius Eskesen
72'
🔁Jaime Morenoout: Piotr Parzyszek
72'
Valentin Gasc
77'
83'
🔁Kevin Kouassivi-Benissanout: Dren terrnava
🔁Saku Savolainenout: Akseli Puukko
84'
88'
Dren terrnava

Match stats — KuPS vs VPS

42%Possession58%
10Shots7
4On target2
1Corners5
1.69xG0.8

Goals against chances

KuPS2 from 1.69 xGabout what the chances were worth
VPS0 from 0.80 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

KuPS 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. KreidlG
  • 6S. SavolainenD
  • 33T. HämäläinenD
  • 23A. LötjönenD
  • 25C. AntwiD
  • 10V. GascM
  • 14S. PasanenM
  • 21J. Luyeye-LutumbaM
  • 8P. PennanenM
  • 24B. ArmahM
  • 11J. MorenoF
Substitutes
  • 34J. EskesenM
  • 9G. EngvallF
  • 15A. AikiF
  • 3S. HeiskanenM
  • 16T. JyryM
  • 20P. ParzyszekF
  • 29A. PuukkoD
  • 12H. RiihimäkiG
  • 22S. TourayM
Coach: M. Nuutinen
VPS 3-4-1-2
  • 41M. JallohG
  • 2L. ManeD
  • 6E. OkerekeD
  • 23M. NiemiD
  • 27K. Kouassivi-BenissanM
  • 34A. RäisänenM
  • 8Paulo Jorge Barros Pimentel LimaM
  • 7J. TurfkruierM
  • 30J. VahteraM
  • 20X. OdhiamboF
  • 9C. HolmelundF
Substitutes
  • 24Y. DaoussiD
  • 14S. LindholmM
  • 11J. MuzingaF
  • 13Oluwaseyi OgunniyiF
  • 1A. PiispaG
  • 25Henri SalomaaF
  • 29W. SamakéF
  • 3Razak SimpsonM
  • 17Dren TërrnavaM
Coach: J. Nuorela

Form going into KuPS vs VPS

KuPS

All competitions we cover

  • L2-4Trabzonspor15 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Inter Turku11 October 2026
  • L0-1AC Oulu8 October 2026
  • W2-0away to VPS19 September 2026
  • D0-0HJK Helsinki13 September 2026

VPS

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Gnistan12 October 2026
  • L0-6away to HJK Helsinki8 October 2026
  • L0-2KuPS19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Inter Turku14 September 2026
  • W1-0AC Oulu8 September 2026

What these results say

  • KuPS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for KuPS had two goals or fewer.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for VPS had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3KuPS32141174633+1353
6VPS32117143243-1140

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: KuPS vs VPS

  • 19 September 2026VPS 0–2 KuPSFinnish Premier League
  • 25 July 2026KuPS 3–1 VPSFinnish Premier League
  • 13 June 2026VPS 1–1 KuPSFinnish Premier League
  • 10 June 2026KuPS 0–0 VPSSuomen Cup
  • 31 January 2026KuPS 3–1 VPSLeague Cup
  • 19 July 2025VPS 1–1 KuPSFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: KuPS and VPS

KuPS

GoalsAssists

  • J. Moreno71
  • B. Armah40
  • P. Pennanen33

VPS

GoalsAssists

  • L. Smyth50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

KuPS beat VPS 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for KuPS at 56%. The goals: Jaime Moreno (penalty) 11' for KuPS, Bob Nii Armah 34' for KuPS. On expected goals it finished 1.69–0.80.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave KuPS a 19.0% chance to finish top of the Championship Group: 23.6% after a win, 13.1% after a draw, 7.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.6%, 4.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Finnish Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on KuPS v VPS has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 56% / 25% / 19%: the biggest move is KuPS's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. KuPS win56%▲ +7
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. VPS win19%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.