17 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Inter Turku vs AC Oulu Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Veritas Stadion, Turku
Referee: O. Reitala
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Inter Turku 1-2 AC Oulu.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% Inter Turku, 24% draw, 15% AC Oulu — fair odds of 1.64, 4.17 and 6.67.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Inter Turku at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Inter Turku7%Draw92%AC Oulu1%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

31'
⚽Rasmus Karjalainenassist: Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozo
🔁Jasse Tuominenout: Johannes Yli-Kokko
58'
🔁Lauri Laineout: Herman Sjögrell
58'
69'
🔁Rasmus Karjalainenout: Roope Riski
69'
🔁Joel lotvonenout: Juuso Mäkeläinen
⚽Herman Sjögrellassist: Jussi Niska
74'
🔁Eeli Kiiskiläout: Iiro Järvinen
80'
80'
🔁Elias Kallioout: Lamine Ghezali
🔁Albin Granlundout: Julius Tauriainen
80'
86'
Miguel Santos
86'
Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozo
87'
🔁Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozoout: Johannes Pentti
🔁Janne-Pekka Laineout: Jean Botué
89'
90+2'
⚽Juuso Mäkeläinenassist: Roope Riski

Match stats — Inter Turku vs AC Oulu

67%Possession33%
21Shots11
5On target5
8Corners3
2.29xG0.75

Goals against chances

Inter Turku1 from 2.29 xGless than the chances were worth
AC Oulu2 from 0.75 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Inter Turku 4-3-3
  • 1E. HuuhtanenG
  • 5A. GranlundD
  • 22L. KuittinenD
  • 6R. IvanovD
  • 2J. NiskaD
  • 9J. TuominenM
  • 14J. LaineM
  • 35Eeli KiiskiläM
  • 28L. LaineF
  • 10Alie ContehF
  • 16C. JephtaF
Substitutes
  • 30Y. AmankwahD
  • 11J. BotuéF
  • 3J. HämäläinenD
  • 19I. JärvinenM
  • 7H. SjögrellM
  • 33Muhammed SusoF
  • 24J. TauriainenD
  • 12E. VuorjokiG
  • 8J. Yli-KokkoM
Coach: V. Vasara
AC Oulu 4-4-2
  • 13Miguel SantosG
  • 16O. KemppainenD
  • 5M. PitkänenD
  • 66J. PirinenD
  • 18Adramane CassamáD
  • 36J. LotvonenM
  • 25M. ArsaloM
  • 21I. MendolinM
  • 27E. KallioM
  • 10C. TrianaF
  • 7R. KarjalainenF
Substitutes
  • 11L. GhezaliF
  • 3J. LietsaD
  • 30J. MakelainenM
  • 12J. PenttiG
  • 9R. RiskiF
  • 29S. SilanderD
  • 2S. SipolaD
  • 19J. OmotayoM
  • 23S. Ala-IsoD
Coach: M. Isokangas

Form going into Inter Turku vs AC Oulu

Inter Turku

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0KuPS11 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Gnistan7 October 2026
  • W1-0away to AC Oulu18 September 2026
  • W1-0VPS14 September 2026
  • L1-2away to HJK Helsinki9 September 2026

AC Oulu

All competitions we cover

  • L3-4HJK Helsinki12 October 2026
  • W1-0away to KuPS8 October 2026
  • L0-1Inter Turku18 September 2026
  • L1-2Gnistan12 September 2026
  • L0-1away to VPS8 September 2026

What these results say

  • Inter Turku scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Inter Turku kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Inter Turku had two goals or fewer.
  • AC Oulu failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • AC Oulu conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Inter Turku32171054327+1661
4AC Oulu32146124140+148

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Inter Turku vs AC Oulu

  • 18 September 2026AC Oulu 0–1 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League
  • 16 August 2026AC Oulu 2–3 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League
  • 13 June 2026Inter Turku 0–0 AC OuluFinnish Premier League
  • 21 March 2026Inter Turku 2–1 AC OuluLeague Cup
  • 8 August 2025Inter Turku 3–2 AC OuluFinnish Premier League
  • 26 April 2025AC Oulu 1–4 Inter TurkuFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: Inter Turku and AC Oulu

Inter Turku

GoalsAssists

  • H. Sjögrell82
  • Alie Conteh40

AC Oulu

GoalsAssists

  • R. Karjalainen56

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AC Oulu won 2–1 at Inter Turku. The model had leaned towards a win for Inter Turku at 61% and given a win for AC Oulu 15%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 7 matches like this one. The goals: Rasmus Karjalainen 31' for AC Oulu, Herman Sjögrell 74' for Inter Turku, Juuso Mäkeläinen 90+2' for AC Oulu. Sent off: Miguel Santos (AC Oulu) 86'. On expected goals it finished 2.29–0.75.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Inter Turku a 75.7% chance to finish top of the Championship Group: 82.3% after a win, 64.2% after a draw, 59.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 59.7%, 16 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Finnish Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Inter Turku v AC Oulu has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 54% / 27% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 61% / 24% / 15%: the biggest move is Inter Turku's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Inter Turku win61%▲ +7
  2. Draw24%▼ −3
  3. AC Oulu win15%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.