18 October 2026, 13:05 UTC

Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira Pro League prediction & result

Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Kalba
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-2 Al-Jazira.

Before kick-off the model made it 19% Al-Ittihad Kalba, 22% draw, 59% Al-Jazira — fair odds of 5.26, 4.55 and 1.69.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Jazira at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Ittihad Kalba3%Draw91%Al-Jazira6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Benjamin Tettehassist: Saman Ghoddos
2'
⚽Guilherme Sucigan Mafra Cunhaassist: Benjamin Tetteh
8'
22'
⚽Malcomassist: Bruno De Oliveira
22'
•Malcom
🔁Caio Eduardoout: Antônio Fialho de Carvalho Neto
29'
45'
🔁Ruben Amaralout: Igor Eduardo Schlemper
🔁Guilherme Sucigan Mafra Cunhaout: Marwan Fahad Hamza
53'
🔁Saile Souzaout: Khalid Ali Aldarmaki
57'
🔁Juninhoout: Ahmad Nourollahi
58'
🔁Saman Ghoddosout: Bader Abaelaziz
58'
Ibrahim Cissé
73'
80'
🔁Kristjan Asllaniout: Abdallah Ramadan
81'
⚽Vinicius Melloassist: Mamadou Coulibaly
82'
Vinicius Mello
Benjamin Tetteh
90+1'
90+1'
🔁Marcus Vinicius Barbosa Meloniout: Nermin Mujkić
90+1'
🔁Mamadou Coulibalyout: Ali Al-Memari
Antônio Fialho de Carvalho Neto
90+5'
Sultan Al-Mantheri
90+7'
Víctor Sánchez
90+10'

Match stats — Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira

39%Possession61%
8Shots19
6On target4
3Corners4
1.06xG1.4

Goals against chances

Al-Ittihad Kalba2 from 1.06 xGmore than the chances were worth
Al-Jazira2 from 1.40 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Ittihad Kalba 4-1-4-1
  • 33Sultan Al MantheriG
  • 6R. AlivodaD
  • 26I. CisséD
  • 22K. GünterD
  • 19Alejandro VergazD
  • 20SaileM
  • 9BiroM
  • 7S. GhoddosM
  • 8Caio EduardoM
  • 94JuninhoM
  • 30B. TettehF
Substitutes
  • 42Ahmed AbunamousF
  • 5Ali SalminM
  • 96Marwan FahadD
  • 41NetoM
  • 27Yaser Al BlooshiF
  • 16Bader NasserD
  • 34Yousif Ali AlmheiriD
  • 10A. NoorollahiM
  • 49Yan PhillipeF
Coach: Víctor Sánchez
Al-Jazira 4-4-2
  • 1E. DestanoğluG
  • 16Marcus MeloniD
  • 4Willyan RochaD
  • 5Khalifa Al HammadiD
  • 17Rúben Alexandre Ramos AmaralD
  • 10MalcomM
  • 8M. CoulibalyM
  • 23K. AsllaniM
  • 77MilsonM
  • 80BrunoF
  • 99Vinicius MelloF
Substitutes
  • 30A. DennisM
  • 7Abdalla RamadanM
  • 55Ali KhaseifG
  • 81Ali Mohamed Saeed Mohamed Abdulla AlmemariF
  • 70M. JattaM
  • 74S. MalkoçoğluM
  • 39N. MujkićD
  • 15M. RabiiD
  • 2IgorD
Coach: C. Olăroiu

Form going into Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira

Al-Ittihad Kalba

Pro League

  • W3-2away to Ajman11 September 2026
  • L0-2Al Ain4 September 2026
  • L1-4away to Dubai United28 August 2026

Al-Jazira

Pro League

  • D1-1Al Nasr10 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai5 September 2026
  • W3-0Ajman29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

United Arab Emirates Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Al-Ittihad Kalba72231116-58
1Al-Jazira7520155+1017

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al-Jazira

  • 13 February 2026Al-Jazira 2–1 Al-Ittihad KalbaPro League
  • 29 December 2025Al-Ittihad Kalba 1–1 Al-JaziraPro League
  • 23 April 2025Al-Jazira 1–2 Al-Ittihad KalbaPro League
  • 7 December 2024Al-Ittihad Kalba 1–1 Al-JaziraPro League
  • 14 March 2024Al-Jazira 2–2 Al-Ittihad KalbaPro League
  • 23 September 2023Al-Ittihad Kalba 0–4 Al-JaziraPro League

Leading scorers: Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira

Al-Ittihad Kalba

GoalsAssists

  • B. Tetteh33
  • A. Noorollahi20

Al-Jazira

GoalsAssists

  • Malcom31
  • Bruno21
  • Vinicius Mello20

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al-Jazira drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Al-Jazira at 59% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Benjamin Tetteh 2' for Al-Ittihad Kalba, Guilherme Sucigan Mafra Cunha 8' for Al-Ittihad Kalba, Malcom 22' for Al-Jazira, Vinicius Mello 81' for Al-Jazira. On expected goals it finished 1.06–1.40.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Al-Ittihad Kalba a 39.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 21.4% after a win, 34.3% after a draw, 44.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 34.3%, 4.7 points lower than before the match.

For Al-Jazira the question was the chance to win the league, 33.0% going in: 39.3% after a win, 24.6% after a draw, 17.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 24.6%, 8.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Al-Ittihad Kalba v Al-Jazira has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 22% / 26% / 52% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 19% / 22% / 59%: the biggest move is Al-Jazira's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Al-Ittihad Kalba win19%▼ −3
  2. Draw22%▼ −4
  3. Al-Jazira win59%▲ +7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.