17 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

Lahti vs Turku PS Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Lahden Stadion, Lahti
Referee: J. Nieminen
Full time5 – 1

Final score: Lahti 5-1 Turku PS.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Lahti, 31% draw, 26% Turku PS — fair odds of 2.33, 3.23 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lahti at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lahti99%Draw1%Turku PS0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
⚽Oscar Häggströmassist: Miika Kauppila
🔁Justus Ojanenout: Otso Koskinen
19'
⚽Martim Ferreiraassist: Tofol Montiel
22'
26'
Charlemagne Azongnitode
⚽Amir Belabidassist: Otso Koskinen
29'
⚽Otso Koskinen
34'
⚽Amir Belabid
56'
⚽Otso Koskinen
60'
63'
🔁Marius Konkkolaout: Joel Ahen
63'
🔁Tomi Vakipartaout: Atte Sihvonen
63'
🔁Abdoulie Tambaout: Eetu Turkki
🔁Erik Anderssonout: Armend Kabashi
75'
🔁Daniel Heikkinenout: Joel Lehtonen
75'
🔁Tofol Montielout: Neemias Benavenuto Barbosa
75'
🔁José Müllerout: Ahmed Babiker
81'
Armend Kabashi
82'
Joel Lehtonen
90+3'

Match stats — Lahti vs Turku PS

59%Possession41%
28Shots8
15On target4
9Corners0
4.87xG1.11

Goals against chances

Lahti5 from 4.87 xGabout what the chances were worth
Turku PS1 from 1.11 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lahti 4-3-3
  • 12A. HakalaG
  • 7D. HeikkinenD
  • 5NícolasD
  • 4J. MullerD
  • 25T. InkinenD
  • 8Tòfol MontielM
  • 18Y. CassubieM
  • 14E. AnderssonM
  • 20J. OjanenF
  • 17A. BelabidF
  • 11Martim FerreiraF
Substitutes
  • 28A. KabashiM
  • 10O. KoskinenM
  • 2J. LehtonenD
  • 9A. LindholmM
  • 19Neemias BarbosaF
  • 13Veikka RattoG
  • 3R. SansD
  • 6V. VehkonenD
  • 43Ahmed BabikerF
Coach: Gonçalo Pereira
Turku PS 4-2-3-1
  • 35D. LauriG
  • 2O. HäggströmD
  • 15C. AzongnitodeD
  • 14M. HrádeckýD
  • 25Abdoulie TambaD
  • 26L. IkonenM
  • 28T. VakipartaM
  • 10M. KönkköläM
  • 29A. MuzaciM
  • 20M. KauppilaM
  • 44N. VeinbergsF
Substitutes
  • 3E. TurkkiD
  • 99K. VisserF
  • 24N. TaloD
  • 17A. SihvonenD
  • 77T. KarkulowskiD
  • 9L. IvanovicF
  • 1E. HenrikssonG
  • 41S. AniniF
  • 45Joel AhenF
Coach: Ivan Piñol

Form going into Lahti vs Turku PS

Lahti

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to SJK9 October 2026
  • D1-1FF Jaro18 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Ilves12 September 2026
  • W2-1Mariehamn8 September 2026
  • W1-0away to VPS31 August 2026

Turku PS

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1FF Jaro10 October 2026
  • L0-3Ilves19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Mariehamn12 September 2026
  • D0-0SJK8 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Gnistan31 August 2026

What these results say

  • Lahti scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lahti conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Turku PS did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Turku PS failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Turku PS conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Lahti vs Turku PS

  • 23 June 2026Lahti 0–0 Turku PSFinnish Premier League
  • 10 April 2026Turku PS 2–1 LahtiFinnish Premier League
  • 31 January 2026Lahti 5–1 Turku PSLeague Cup
  • 18 October 2025Turku PS 3–3 LahtiYkkösliiga
  • 14 July 2025Lahti 2–2 Turku PSYkkösliiga
  • 21 May 2025Turku PS 2–2 LahtiYkkösliiga

Leading scorers: Lahti and Turku PS

Lahti

GoalsAssists

  • Martim Ferreira51
  • O. Koskinen32

Turku PS

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lahti beat Turku PS 5–1. The model had made a win for Lahti its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Oscar Häggström 12' for Turku PS, Martim Ferreira 22' for Lahti, Amir Belabid 29' for Lahti, Otso Koskinen 34' for Lahti, Amir Belabid 56' for Lahti, Otso Koskinen 60' for Lahti. On expected goals it finished 4.87–1.11.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lahti a 59.3% chance to finish top of the Championship Group: 81.7% after a win, 51.6% after a draw, 29.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 81.7%, 22.4 points higher than before the match.

For Turku PS the question was the chance to finish top of the Championship Group, 5.3% going in: 18.9% after a win, 0.0% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 0.0%, 5.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Finnish Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Lahti v Turku PS has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 40% / 31% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 43% / 31% / 26%: the biggest move is Lahti's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Lahti win43%▲ +3
  2. Draw31%=
  3. Turku PS win26%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.