Le Mans
vs
Lille
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Le Mans 0–1 Lille
The model makes it 20% Le Mans, 27% draw, 53% Lille — fair odds of 5.00, 3.70 and 1.89.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (13%).
Expected goals: Le Mans 0.85, Lille 1.72.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Lille are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Le Mans's rating is built from 10 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Lille's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 705 matches.
Key facts
- Le Mans are 15th on 8 points from 10 games; Lille are 2nd on 21 points from 10 games — Ligue 1.
- Le Mans have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Monaco.
- Lille are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Rennes.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Le Mans vs Lille
Has the model earned this number?
Lille at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Le Mans vs Lille
Le Mans
Ligue 1
- D1-1Monaco8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Estac Troyes31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Auxerre25 October 2026
- L0-3Toulouse16 October 2026
- L1-3away to Paris Saint Germain10 October 2026
Lille
Ligue 1
- W2-1away to Rennes8 November 2026
- W1-0Lens30 October 2026
- D1-1away to Monaco25 October 2026
- D1-1Stade Brestois 2917 October 2026
- W1-0Le Havre10 October 2026
What these results say
- Le Mans did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Le Mans conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lille went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lille scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lille had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Le Mans | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 8 |
| 2 | Lille | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Le Mans
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 24% today
Lille
Chance to finish in the top three · 57% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Le Mans vs Lille
- 6 January 2018Le Mans 2–4 LilleCoupe de France
Leading scorers: Le Mans and Lille
Le Mans
GoalsAssists
- L. Mafouta41
- A. Bourabaa32
Lille
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Le Mans a 0% chance of the title and Lille 10.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lille the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Le Mans against 1.72 for Lille. Le Mans's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/0.64 for Lille.
How the model reaches 53% for Lille to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Lille to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Le Mans's ratings add 11 points and Lille's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- Le Mans's ratings42%+11
- Lille's ratings53%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Le Mans at home · Lille away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Le MansLille
Le Mans are 15th after 10 Ligue 1 matches (between 3rd and 17th so far); Lille are 2nd after 10 (between 1st and 4th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Le Mans 10, Lille 10.
Le Mans score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Lille have let in 0 there.
Lille score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Le Mans have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Le Mans
- at Paris FC5 Dec · Ligue 1win 14%
- at Le Havre12 Dec · Ligue 1win 34%
- vs Lyon3 Jan · Ligue 1win 28%
- at Strasbourg16 Jan · Ligue 1win 22%
Lille
- vs Auxerre5 Dec · Ligue 1win 65%
- at VfB Stuttgart9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 34%
- at Lorient13 Dec · Ligue 1win 41%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.