Paris Saint Germain
vs
Lorient
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Paris Saint Germain 2–0 Lorient
The model makes it 65% Paris Saint Germain, 22% draw, 13% Lorient — fair odds of 1.54, 4.55 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Paris Saint Germain 2.15, Lorient 0.71.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Paris Saint Germain are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Paris Saint Germain's rating is built from 44 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Lorient's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 705 matches.
Key facts
- Paris Saint Germain are top on 23 points from 10 games; Lorient are 10th on 15 points from 10 games — Ligue 1.
- Paris Saint Germain are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Estac Troyes.
- Lorient have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Le Havre.
- Last 6 meetings: Paris Saint Germain 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Paris Saint Germain 2–2 Lorient.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient
Has the model earned this number?
Paris Saint Germain at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient
Paris Saint Germain
Ligue 1
- W1-0Estac Troyes7 November 2026
- W5-1away to Le Havre30 October 2026
- W2-0Lyon26 October 2026
- W3-1away to Strasbourg17 October 2026
- W3-1Le Mans10 October 2026
Lorient
Ligue 1
- W2-0away to Le Havre8 November 2026
- L0-2Stade Brestois 292 November 2026
- D0-0away to Angers25 October 2026
- W1-0Monaco18 October 2026
- W1-0Paris FC10 October 2026
What these results say
- Paris Saint Germain won every one of these 5 matches.
- Paris Saint Germain scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Lorient had two goals or fewer.
- Lorient kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 10 | Lorient | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Paris Saint Germain
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 73% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient
- 2 May 2026Paris Saint Germain 2–2 LorientLigue 1
- 29 October 2025Lorient 1–1 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 24 April 2024Lorient 1–4 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 12 August 2023Paris Saint Germain 0–0 LorientLigue 1
- 30 April 2023Paris Saint Germain 1–3 LorientLigue 1
- 6 November 2022Lorient 1–2 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
Leading scorers: Paris Saint Germain and Lorient
Paris Saint Germain
GoalsAssists
- Ferran Torres41
- A. Hakimi32
Lorient
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Paris Saint Germain a 72.9% chance of the title and Lorient 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paris Saint Germain the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain against 0.71 for Lorient. Paris Saint Germain's attack/defence rating is 1.48/0.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/0.86 for Lorient.
How the model reaches 65% for Paris Saint Germain to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Paris Saint Germain to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Paris Saint Germain's ratings add 14 points and Lorient's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 65%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level40%−3
- Paris Saint Germain's ratings54%+14
- Lorient's ratings65%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Paris Saint Germain at home · Lorient away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Paris Saint GermainLorient
Paris Saint Germain are 1st after 10 Ligue 1 matches (between 1st and 12th so far); Lorient are 10th after 10 (between 5th and 15th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Paris Saint Germain 10, Lorient 10.
Paris Saint Germain score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Lorient have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Paris Saint Germain
- at Toulouse4 Dec · Ligue 1win 56%
- at Aston Villa8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 42%
- vs Paris FC12 Dec · Ligue 1win 55%
Lorient
- at Strasbourg5 Dec · Ligue 1win 31%
- vs Lille13 Dec · Ligue 1win 27%
- vs Auxerre2 Jan · Ligue 1win 50%
- at Lyon17 Jan · Ligue 1win 26%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.