Nice
vs
Estac Troyes
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Nice 1–0 Estac Troyes
The model makes it 52% Nice, 27% draw, 21% Estac Troyes — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Nice 1.65, Estac Troyes 0.86.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Nice: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Nice's rating is built from 46 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Estac Troyes's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 705 matches.
Key facts
- Nice are 6th on 17 points from 10 games; Estac Troyes are 17th on 8 points from 10 games — Ligue 1.
- Nice are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Angers.
- Estac Troyes have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Paris Saint Germain.
- Last 6 meetings: Nice 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 30 April 2023, ended Estac Troyes 0–1 Nice.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nice vs Estac Troyes
Has the model earned this number?
Nice at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Nice vs Estac Troyes
Nice
Ligue 1
- W2-0away to Angers8 November 2026
- W5-2Rennes30 October 2026
- W2-1away to Stade Brestois 2923 October 2026
- L1-2away to Lyon18 October 2026
- W2-1Strasbourg11 October 2026
Estac Troyes
Ligue 1
- L0-1away to Paris Saint Germain7 November 2026
- W2-0Le Mans31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Toulouse25 October 2026
- L1-3Lens17 October 2026
- L0-2Marseille11 October 2026
What these results say
- Nice scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nice won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Estac Troyes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Estac Troyes had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nice | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Estac Troyes
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 28% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Nice vs Estac Troyes
- 30 April 2023Estac Troyes 0–1 NiceLigue 1
- 9 October 2022Nice 3–2 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- 24 April 2022Nice 1–0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- 17 October 2021Estac Troyes 1–0 NiceLigue 1
- 1 April 2018Estac Troyes 0–2 NiceLigue 1
- 11 August 2017Nice 1–2 Estac TroyesLigue 1
Leading scorers: Nice and Estac Troyes
Nice
GoalsAssists
- E. Wahi62
Estac Troyes
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nice a 0.2% chance of the title and Estac Troyes 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nice the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Nice against 0.86 for Estac Troyes. Nice's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.1 for Estac Troyes.
How the model reaches 52% for Nice to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Nice to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Nice's ratings add 7 points and Estac Troyes's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level40%−3
- Nice's ratings47%+7
- Estac Troyes's ratings52%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Nice at home · Estac Troyes away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
NiceEstac Troyes
Nice are 6th after 10 Ligue 1 matches (between 5th and 17th so far); Estac Troyes are 17th after 10 (between 2nd and 17th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Nice 10, Estac Troyes 10.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Nice
- at Marseille6 Dec · Ligue 1win 21%
- vs Lens12 Dec · Ligue 1win 34%
- at Monaco2 Jan · Ligue 1win 24%
- vs Le Havre16 Jan · Ligue 1win 54%
Estac Troyes
- vs Lyon6 Dec · Ligue 1win 25%
- at Stade Brestois 2912 Dec · Ligue 1win 19%
- vs Rennes2 Jan · Ligue 1win 28%
- at Auxerre16 Jan · Ligue 1win 28%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.