Le Mans vs Lens Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Le Mans 2-2 Lens.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Le Mans, 29% draw, 33% Lens — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Le Mans at 38% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Le Mans vs Lens
Line-ups
- 1E. HatfoutG
- 15N. BoisséD
- 17S. YohouD
- 5H. VoyerD
- 29L. BretelleM
- 26R. BambaM
- 11A. BourabaaM
- 10J. VercruysseM
- 22L. CalodatM
- 14L. MafoutaF
- 25D. GuèyeF
- 7B. BrahimiF
- 13H. DialloF
- 98N. KocikG
- 76Y. LarouciD
- 8A. LaurayM
- 9A. RabillardF
- 19D. SidibéD
- 16Raúl TorrenteD
- 23D. TraoréM
- 40R. RisserG
- 24J. GraditD
- 32K. AntonioD
- 14M. UdolD
- 2R. AguilarM
- 27M. CuisanceM
- 5A. BulatovićM
- 22M. SkóraśM
- 19A. SimaM
- 10F. ThauvinM
- 11O. ÉdouardF
- 4N. ÄelikD
- 16M. GorgelinG
- 21A. HaidaraM
- 9T. HazardM
- 29F. IvanovićF
- 28J. KadileF
- 38Mezian MesloubM
- 7F. SotocaF
- 20J. TodiboD
Form going into Le Mans vs Lens
Le Mans
- D1-1away to Nice5 September 2026
- L2-3away to Rennes30 August 2026
- D2-2Stade Brestois 2922 August 2026
Lens
- L0-1Lorient5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Strasbourg29 August 2026
- W5-2Auxerre22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Le Mans | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Lens | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Le Mans vs Lens
- 13 September 2026Le Mans 2–2 LensLigue 1
- 27 July 2019Le Mans 1–2 LensLigue 2
- 24 May 2013Le Mans 2–1 LensLigue 2
- 28 July 2012Lens 2–2 Le MansLigue 2
- 6 April 2012Lens 1–3 Le MansLigue 2
Leading scorers: Le Mans and Lens
Le Mans
- L. Mafouta3 goals1 assists
- A. Bourabaa2 goals2 assists
- L. Calodat1 goals1 assists
Lens
- F. Thauvin3 goals1 assists
- F. Ivanović2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.