Le Mans vs Lens Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Le Mans 2-2 Lens.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Le Mans, 29% draw, 33% Lens — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Le Mans at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Le Mans vs Lens
Line-ups
- 1E. HatfoutG
- 15N. BoisséD
- 17S. YohouD
- 5H. VoyerD
- 29L. BretelleM
- 26R. BambaM
- 11A. BourabaaM
- 10J. VercruysseM
- 22L. CalodatM
- 14L. MafoutaF
- 25D. GuèyeF
- 7B. BrahimiF
- 13H. DialloF
- 98N. KocikG
- 76Y. LarouciD
- 8A. LaurayM
- 9A. RabillardF
- 19D. SidibéD
- 16Raúl TorrenteD
- 23D. TraoréM
- 40R. RisserG
- 24J. GraditD
- 32K. AntonioD
- 14M. UdolD
- 2R. AguilarM
- 27M. CuisanceM
- 5A. BulatovićM
- 22M. SkóraśM
- 19A. SimaM
- 10F. ThauvinM
- 11O. ÉdouardF
- 4N. ÄelikD
- 16M. GorgelinG
- 21A. HaidaraM
- 9T. HazardM
- 29F. IvanovićF
- 28J. KadileF
- 38Mezian MesloubM
- 7F. SotocaF
- 20J. TodiboD
Form going into Le Mans vs Lens
Le Mans
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Nice5 September 2026
- L2-3away to Rennes30 August 2026
- D2-2Stade Brestois 2922 August 2026
Lens
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Slavia Praha10 September 2026
- L0-1Lorient5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Strasbourg29 August 2026
- W5-2Auxerre22 August 2026
What these results say
- Lens conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Lens scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Lens had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Le Mans | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 8 |
| 11 | Lens | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Le Mans vs Lens
- 27 July 2019Le Mans 1–2 LensLigue 2
- 24 May 2013Le Mans 2–1 LensLigue 2
- 28 July 2012Lens 2–2 Le MansLigue 2
- 6 April 2012Lens 1–3 Le MansLigue 2
Leading scorers: Le Mans and Lens
Le Mans
GoalsAssists
- L. Mafouta41
- A. Bourabaa32
Lens
GoalsAssists
- F. Thauvin57
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Le Mans and Lens drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Le Mans at 38% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Adil Bourabaa 32' for Le Mans, Lucas Calodat 44' for Le Mans, Abdallah Sima 45+2' for Lens, Franjo Ivanovic 51' for Lens.
How the call on Le Mans v Lens has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Lens's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Le Mans win38%▲ +1
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Lens win33%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.