Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Stade Brestois 29 0-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Stade Brestois 29, 28% draw, 32% Paris Saint Germain — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Stade Brestois 29 at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain
Line-ups
- 1E. SelvikG
- 70K. LalaD
- 71R. Le GuenD
- 4G. LlorisD
- 2B. LockoD
- 13J. ChotardM
- 8H. MagnettiM
- 10G. VersiniM
- 23K. DoumbiaM
- 9P. MboupM
- 19L. AjorqueF
- 20L. ZogbeD
- 29L. TousartM
- 30M. PatouilletG
- 7J. Nonge BoendeM
- 39D. N´GuessanF
- 33Enzo MonchatreF
- 32L. C. Laine M.M
- 21Ibrahim Yayiya KanteF
- 18J. BourgaultD
- 39M. SafonovG
- 2A. HakimiD
- 5MarquinhosD
- 51W. PachoD
- 25Nuno MendesD
- 33W. Zaïre-EmeryM
- 17VitinhaM
- 87João NevesM
- 10O. DembéléF
- 9Ferran TorresF
- 7K. KvaratskheliaF
- 12L. DigneD
- 30L. ChevalierG
- 11M. AklioucheM
- 14D. DouéF
- 27Pedro FernándezM
- 22M. GodtsF
- 21L. HernándezD
- 4BeraldoD
- 8Fabián RuizM
Form going into Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain
Stade Brestois 29
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Le Havre5 September 2026
- D2-2Toulouse29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Le Mans22 August 2026
Paris Saint Germain
All competitions we cover
- W6-1Slovan Bratislava9 September 2026
- L1-2Monaco4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lille28 August 2026
- D2-2Rennes23 August 2026
What these results say
- Paris Saint Germain scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Paris Saint Germain conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Paris Saint Germain had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 15 |
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain
- 10 May 2026Paris Saint Germain 1–0 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 25 October 2025Stade Brestois 29 0–3 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 19 February 2025Paris Saint Germain 7–0 Stade Brestois 29UEFA Champions League
- 11 February 2025Stade Brestois 29 0–3 Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
- 1 February 2025Stade Brestois 29 2–5 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
Leading scorers: Stade Brestois 29 and Paris Saint Germain
Stade Brestois 29
GoalsAssists
- L. Ajorque51
- K. Doumbia42
Paris Saint Germain
GoalsAssists
- Ferran Torres41
- A. Hakimi32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Paris Saint Germain won 1–0 at Stade Brestois 29. The model had leaned towards a win for Stade Brestois 29 at 40% and given a win for Paris Saint Germain 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Ferrán Torres 5' for Paris Saint Germain.
How the call on Stade Brestois 29 v Paris Saint Germain has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 40% / 28% / 32%: the biggest move is Stade Brestois 29's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Stade Brestois 29 win40%▲ +3
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Paris Saint Germain win32%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.