Paris FC vs Lyon Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Paris FC 0-0 Lyon.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Paris FC, 27% draw, 24% Lyon — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paris FC at 49% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Paris FC vs Lyon
Line-ups
- 1K. TrappG
- 31S. CherguiD
- 42D. CoppolaD
- 14H. TraoréD
- 17A. CamaraM
- 20M. LopezM
- 33P. Lees-MelouM
- 15L. KoleoshoM
- 10I. KebbalM
- 7P. PagisM
- 9L. SinayokoF
- 93J. IkonéF
- 25Y. KoréD
- 4V. MarchettiM
- 23R. MatondoM
- 5M. MbowD
- 16O. NkambadioG
- 27M. SimonF
- 18O. SissokoF
- 8E. ZabiM
- 1D. GreifG
- 13Z. AthekameD
- 20F. BacherD
- 19M. NiakhatéD
- 16AbnerD
- 2M. BidstrupM
- 23T. MortonM
- 7E. NuamahM
- 10P. ŠulcM
- 8C. TolissoM
- 17L. OpendaF
- 99N. NarteyM
- 11Keito NakamuraF
- 3N. TagliaficoD
- 6T. TessmannM
- 40R. DescampsG
- 21R. KluivertD
- 26K. BoudacheF
- 22Clinton MataD
- 18K. MerahM
Form going into Paris FC vs Lyon
Paris FC
- W3-2away to Marseille6 September 2026
- W3-0Nice30 August 2026
- D0-0away to Estac Troyes22 August 2026
Lyon
- W3-1Auxerre4 September 2026
- D1-1Le Havre29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Toulouse22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Paris FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 | Lyon | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Paris FC vs Lyon
- 12 September 2026Paris FC 0–0 LyonLigue 1
- 8 March 2026Lyon 1–1 Paris FCLigue 1
- 29 October 2025Paris FC 3–3 LyonLigue 1
Leading scorers: Paris FC and Lyon
Paris FC
- L. Sinayoko4 goals
Lyon
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.