Lille vs Estac Troyes Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Lille 2-0 Estac Troyes.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Lille, 28% draw, 25% Estac Troyes — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Lille at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lille vs Estac Troyes
Line-ups
- 1B. ÖzerG
- 22Tiago SantosD
- 3N. NgoyD
- 4Alexsandro RibeiroD
- 15R. PerraudD
- 17N. MukauM
- 6N. BentalebM
- 7D. BakwaM
- 10H. HaraldssonM
- 19B. ÖnalM
- 18A. UedaF
- 21B. AndréM
- 12O. GillG
- 9O. GiroudF
- 14M. KjærgaardM
- 8E. MbappéM
- 23T. NianzouD
- 28G. PerrinF
- 11O. SahraouiF
- 24C. VerdonkD
- 33P. BeachG
- 2L. MaronnierD
- 6A. MonfrayD
- 4M. DiazD
- 3A. OuzenadjiD
- 8M. DiopM
- 29D. KarimM
- 7K. DiawaraM
- 17A. MilleM
- 22H. PicardM
- 9J. Le DouaronF
- 36I. SoukounaM
- 41Enisio CarneiroD
- 31Noah DonkorD
- 11I. GomisM
- 40H. KonatéG
- 39Y. KoneF
- 23T. NkadaF
- 20R. RipartF
- 34Lassana SimakhaD
Form going into Lille vs Estac Troyes
Lille
All competitions we cover
- L2-3Real Betis8 September 2026
- W1-0away to Toulouse3 September 2026
- D2-2Paris Saint Germain28 August 2026
- W2-0away to Angers23 August 2026
Estac Troyes
All competitions we cover
- L2-6Strasbourg6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Lorient29 August 2026
- D0-0Paris FC22 August 2026
What these results say
- Lille scored in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lille | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 21 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lille vs Estac Troyes
- 3 June 2023Estac Troyes 1–1 LilleLigue 1
- 15 January 2023Lille 5–1 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- 8 January 2023Lille 2–0 Estac TroyesCoupe de France
- 1 May 2022Estac Troyes 3–0 LilleLigue 1
- 4 December 2021Lille 2–1 Estac TroyesLigue 1
The result against the call
Lille beat Estac Troyes 2–0. The model had made a win for Lille its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Tiago Santos 18' for Lille, Ethan Mbappe 90+3' for Lille.
How the call on Lille v Estac Troyes has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 43% / 30% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 47% / 28% / 25%: the biggest move is Lille's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Lille win47%▲ +4
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Estac Troyes win25%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.