28 October 2026, 19:30 UTC

Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia Cup prediction & result

Polsat Plus Arena, Gdansk
Referee: T. Kwiatkowski
Full time0 – 6

Final score: Lechia Gdansk 0-6 Jagiellonia.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Lechia Gdansk, 25% draw, 45% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 3.33, 4.00 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Jagiellonia at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lechia Gdansk0%Draw1%Jagiellonia99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

S. Kopasek
2'
34'
⚽N. Prelec
40'
⚽O. Sow
43'
A. Cirkovic
50'
⚽O. Sowassist: A. Klynge
54'
⚽J. Imazassist: A. Cirkovic
57'
🔁N. Prelecout: D. Rallis
57'
🔁T. Romanczukout: E. Kozlowski
🔁J. Menaout: K. Dodaj
59'
🔁A. Shakhout: J. Adkonis
59'
61'
⚽O. Sowassist: D. Rallis
65'
🔁O. Sowout: K. Jozwiak
65'
🔁J. Imazout: S. Lozano
68'
⚽D. Rallis
71'
🔁R. Conceicaoout: B. Vital
🔁H. Ivanovout: B. Szczepankiewicz
73'
🔁V. Blanutaout: B. Sonko
73'
🔁T. Wojtowiczout: M. Glogowski
78'

Line-ups

Lechia Gdansk
Coach: Vladyslav Lupashko
Jagiellonia
Coach: Adrian Siemieniec

Form going into Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia

Lechia Gdansk

I Liga

  • L1-2away to Puszcza Niepołomice24 October 2026
  • W2-1Arka Gdynia18 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Stal Rzeszów12 October 2026

Jagiellonia

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Wisla Plock25 October 2026
  • L0-3Anderlecht22 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Zaglebie Lubin18 October 2026
  • W3-1Ararat-Armenia15 October 2026
  • L1-3Gornik Zabrze10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Jagiellonia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia

  • 6 March 2026Lechia Gdansk 3–0 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 31 August 2025Jagiellonia 2–0 Lechia GdanskEkstraklasa
  • 29 March 2025Lechia Gdansk 1–0 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 21 September 2024Jagiellonia 3–2 Lechia GdanskEkstraklasa
  • 10 April 2023Jagiellonia 1–0 Lechia GdanskEkstraklasa
  • 17 September 2022Lechia Gdansk 2–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa

The result against the call

Jagiellonia won 6–0 at Lechia Gdansk. The model had made a win for Jagiellonia its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: N. Prelec 34' for Jagiellonia, O. Sow 40' for Jagiellonia, O. Sow 50' for Jagiellonia, J. Imaz 54' for Jagiellonia, O. Sow 61' for Jagiellonia, D. Rallis 68' for Jagiellonia.

How the call on Lechia Gdansk v Jagiellonia has moved

First published on 14 Oct at 38% / 26% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 30% / 25% / 45%: the biggest move is Jagiellonia's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Lechia Gdansk win30%▼ −8
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Jagiellonia win45%▲ +9

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.