Gamba Osaka vs Buriram United AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Gamba Osaka 1-1 Buriram United.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Gamba Osaka, 22% draw, 17% Buriram United — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Gamba Osaka at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gamba Osaka vs Buriram United
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22J. IchimoriG
- 28S. FujiwaraD
- 4S. NakataniD
- 67S. SasakiD
- 21R. HatsuseD
- 13S. AbeM
- 78JuanpeM
- 20E. AdamsM
- 8R. MeshinoM
- 97Welton FelipeM
- 41Y. ToshidaF
- 27R. MitoM
- 10S. KurataM
- 7T. UsamiF
- 17R. YamashitaF
- 16T. SuzukiM
- 39K. SumiM
- 47S. NakanoD
- 2S. FukuokaD
- 1M. HigashiguchiG
- 13N. EtheridgeG
- 19K. SchindlerD
- 5NathanD
- 6C. GoodD
- 40Eduardo ManchaD
- 31CajuD
- 23G. ČaušićM
- 16K. DougallM
- 20Toni MoyaM
- 37DarlanM
- 7BissoliF
- 99A. TudorieF
- 27P. SookjitthammakulM
- 8PaulinhoM
- 10Sebas MoyanoF
- 2S. HaiprakhonD
- 55T. BunmathanD
- 34C. BootpromG
- 17Lucas AhijadoD
- 30S. SchimmerF
Form going into Gamba Osaka vs Buriram United
Gamba Osaka
AFC Champions League Elite
- W3-1away to Newcastle Jets13 October 2026
- W4-1Công An Nhân Dân15 September 2026
Buriram United
AFC Champions League Elite
- L0-1Beijing Guoan13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Johor Darul Takzim FC15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Gamba Osaka | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 8 |
| 12 | Buriram United | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Gamba Osaka and Buriram United
Gamba Osaka
GoalsAssists
- T. Usami30
Buriram United
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gamba Osaka and Buriram United drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Gamba Osaka at 61% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Eduardo Mancha 39' for Buriram United, Takashi Usami 66' for Gamba Osaka. On expected goals it finished 3.84–0.68.